The NZDUSD pushed to a new high today—its highest level since 2024年11月—before stalling near a 关键摆动区域在0.6031和0.6045之间, which also includes the 61.8%回撤 of the decline from the late September 2024 high, coming in at 0.60357.

After failing to break through that resistance zone, the pair rotated lower and is now trading at new session lows, with the most recent dip reaching 0.5969. This decline brings the pair closer to the 100小时移动平均线上升, currently at 0.5964. Yesterday, the 100-hour MA was tested for the first time since 四月9, and buyers successfully defended the level.

Heading into the new trading day, the 100-hour MA will be a 关键技术晴雨表. 逢低买家可能会寻求这种支持, hoping for a rebound toward the highs and another test of the 61.8% retracement and swing area. However, a 跌破100小时平均水平 would shift the focus to the 50%回撤于0.5930, followed by the 200小时移动平均线上涨至0.5907.

持续跌破50%水平和200小时MA would be needed to 强化熊市偏见 and suggest a more meaningful reversal in the pair’s recent uptrend.