欧元兑美元、美元兑日元和英镑兑美元在美国时段开始时涨跌互现。三大股的交易价格均接近MA水平，表明市场正在等待下一次冲击（或周末？）。美国PCE数据将公布（美联储支持通胀读数）、美国贸易数据（由于企业在关税前提前库存增加，因此仍然超级负面）和密歇根州消费者情绪将有助于推动美元的走势（或不）。上面的视频概述了关键目标和定义水平的偏见。

In news today, Bank of England’s Taylor expressed concern over increasing 下行风险 to the economy, driven by 全球事态发展 such as a potential 贸易战, which he said would be 阴性生长. He argued that 更高的通胀 is not primarily the result of 需求或供应压力, but rather due to 一次性因素 like 增税和管理价格变动. By framing inflation as transitory, Taylor suggests there may be 英国央行进一步降息的空间 as inflation eases.

ECB Executive Board member 法比奥·帕内塔 stated that while there is 降息空间缩小 further, the Eurozone’s 宏观经济前景依然疲弱, with growing risks from 贸易紧张局势. He emphasized that 未来货币政策决策 should be made on a 具体情况, guided by 传入数据, 通胀趋势, and 增长预测. Panetta highlighted the importance of maintaining a 务实和灵活 stance, particularly by closely monitoring 流动性状况. He noted that 反通胀 is nearly complete and has not caused major damage to the economy so far. However, he warned that the outcome of 正在进行的贸易谈判 remains uncertain and could have a 对欧洲影响重大, with 关税暴露行业 already experiencing 信心下降 and 预期减弱 for orders and employment.

Overnight, German retail sales fell by 环比-1.1%, missing expectations of +0.2%, though the prior month was revised sharply higher to +0.9% from -0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 2.3%, beating the 1.8% forecast, with the previous figure also revised up to 3.3% from 2.2%. Despite the monthly decline, upward revisions suggest stronger past performance. Given the 波动 of retail sales data, the release is considered 非市场变动 and is unlikely to influence 欧洲央行政策.

Germany’s headline inflation (HICP) rose 2.1%年, slightly above the 2.0% forecast but down from 2.2% in April. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.2%, beating expectations of 0.1%, though slower than April’s 0.5% rise. 核心CPI held steady at 2.9%年. While the data came in marginally above forecasts, it’s not expected to shift the 欧洲央行的政策立场 at this point.

As outlined above, it will be a busy day of economic releases is ahead, particularly for the 美国, where inflation, trade, income, and sentiment figures will give markets fresh insight into the health of the economy. 加拿大 also releases GDP data that could influence expectations for Bank of Canada policy.

以下是关键的预定发布内容及其预测和之前的读数。

• 上午8：30-加拿大GDP环比: Forecast 0.1%, Previous -0.2%

• 上午8：30-美国核心PCE价格指数月率: Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.0%. YoY Core 2.5% vs 2.6% last month. Headline MoM is est 0.1% and the YoY 2.2%

• 上午8：30-美国商品贸易平衡: Forecast -142.8B, Previous -163.2B

• 上午8：30-美国个人收入月/月: Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.5%

• 上午8：30-美国个人支出月/月: Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.7%

• 上午8：30-美国初步批发库存月数: Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.5%

• 上午10：00-美国修订的UoM消费者信心指数: Forecast 51.1, Previous 50.8

• 上午10：00-美国修订后的单位1年通胀预期: Preliminary 7.3%, Last month 6.5%

• 上午10：00-美国修订后的UoM 5年通胀预期: Preliminary 4.6%, Last month 4.4%

• 中午12：20-美国FOMC成员博斯蒂克发表讲话

• 下午7：30-美国联邦公开市场委员会成员古尔斯比发言

正如期货所暗示的那样，美国股票几乎没有变化：

• 道琼斯工业平均指数-37.22点
• 标准普尔指数期货暗示-3.92点
• 纳斯达克指数-4.20点

在美债市场开启美国时段

• 2年期收益率3.9525%，-1.4个基点
• 5-年收益率3.987%，-1.0个基点
• 10-年收益率4.414%，-1.0个基点
• 30年期收益率4.920%，-0.3个基点