USDCAD fell during yesterday’s Asia-Pacific session, breaking below a key swing area between 1.38078和1.38499. The initial decline reached a low of 1.37808 before rebounding to a session high of 1.3845, near the upper boundary of the previously mentioned swing zone, which dates back to 2024年10月和11月.

The price subsequently rotated lower, breaking below the swing area again and reaching a new low of 1.37922 in today’s early trading. However, during the European session, USDCAD rebounded sharply, climbing back above the swing area high at 1.38499 and extending to a new intraday high of 1.38609.

Importantly, that move also pushed the pair above the 100-小时均线, currently at 1.38463 (see blue line on the chart). This level has been a persistent ceiling, with failed break attempts seen on 周二、周三和周四—each occurring at successively lower levels. Today’s break represents another attempt by buyers to shift the bias.

For buyers to gain more control, they must first maintain price action 高于100小时移动平均线, and then target the 200小时移动平均线下跌至1.38828. Notably, the price has not traded above that level since a brief push on 四月9, and before that on 四月7. A sustained move above both moving averages would strengthen the bullish case and tilt short-term technical momentum further in favor of buyers.