美元兑瑞士法郎 found solid footing during the Asian and European morning sessions, bouncing twice off its 200-小时移动平均线0.7952（见上图绿线）. That level, along with a break back above the 100-上周小时MA为0.7945, has helped tilt the short-term bias in favor of the buyers - with work to do.

The next key hurdle comes at the 较上周四的高点0.7986, which briefly broke yesterday before quickly reversing. A more convincing break above that level would shift focus toward the 6月跌幅0.8002处回撤38.2% — a critical target that could set the tone for further upside. If the buyers are to take more control, they need to get and stay above the 38.2% retracement target.

As long as the pair remains above the moving averages, 买家保留控制权. A fall back below 0.7945-0.7952 would weaken that narrative and open the door for a deeper retracement toward 0.7920-0.7930. For now, the technicals favor strength, but a break of 38.2% is ultimately needed to build further upside momentum.