Geopolitical shock was the initial driver in the forex market today: news that U.S. forces struck Iranian enrichment sites sparked a flight into the greenback and crude-linked selling of CAD. USDCAD surged through the confluence of the May trend-line cap and the 50 % retracement of the May → Jun slide at 1.37782, briefly printing fresh three-week highs.

但突破并没有持续下去。随着华尔街收复早盘失地，美国收益率走低，焦点转向政策分歧。美联储理事鲍曼回应了沃勒州长周五的言论，即7月降息“可能会摆在桌面上”，这凸显了与鲍威尔主席更为谨慎的立场之间的分歧。美元逆转，将美元兑加元拉回黄色阴影波动带内，最近又回到黄色阴影波动带下方。

The USDCAD is now pivoting around the former floor at 1.37498. A decisive close below keeps the failure narrative alive and paints this morning’s spike as a bull trap; in that scenario, the broken 38.2 % retrace at 1.37221 is the first natural magnet, with the 100-hour MA just beneath adding weight.

Conversely, a recovery back into the swing area and above the 1.3771和50%1.3778 would re-energise buyers and open the door toward 1.3814and then the 61.8%，至1.3824 as targets.

关键技术水平

• 电阻

  • 1.3778 - 1.3781（50%折返和摇摆区上限） 

  • 1.3814（五月小转折） 

  • 1.38342（5月初高点/61.8% Fib） 

• 支持

  • 1.37221（5月回调38.2%） 

  • 1.3701（100小时MA;开始更广泛的支持范围） 

  • 1.3685 -1.3692（摇摆区） 

只要地缘政治和美联储言论朝相反的方向发展，预计交易员将倾向于上方水平的双向流动。

PS：7月降息的可能性高达20%，而9月降息的可能性现在是80%。两个美联储官员比一个更大。此外，美联储主席的快速反驳也暗示了政治因素，就在周三，他暗示美联储决心等待关税引发的通胀飙升即将到来。