Yesterday’s announcement of a 部分中美关税暂停90天 lit a fire under USDJPY, propelling the pair from a gap higher low 145.71, to a 时段峰值为148.64.
That rally 148.56至148.73之间长期存在的摇摆区停止寒冷 (red arrows on the chart) — the same band that capped price action multiple times in February–March and going back to December 2024.

Today, the mood has shifted. A 美国CPI数据低于预期 clipped US yields and the dollar, knocking USDJPY back lower. Despite the setback, buyers still hold the near‑term edge while price remains above the first support target:

• 147.20 - 147.34秋千区 dating to August 2024 (not shown)

• 38.2%回落4月份反弹至147.14

Hold above that 风险界定区 and the upside bias survives; break below and the recovery narrative starts to unravel.

On the topside, the market must clear yesterday’s 148.73 high to reignite momentum. A break would expose a 障碍群 including the::

• 2025年跌幅回落50%至149.38

• 每日200-MA，149.58美元

• 心理150.00水平

• 每日100-MA 150.30

关键级别（单行项目符号）：

• 阻力： 148.56‑148.73 (swing area), 149.38 (50 % retracement), 149.58 (200 day moving average), 150.30 (100 day moving average)

• 支持： 147.20‑147.34 (swing), 147.14 (38.2 %), 146.53 (prev low from March)

• 偏见： Bullish while > 147-13 -147.20; break < 147.13 shifts focus to the downside