JPMorgan now sees a 35 percent chance that the U.S. economy will fall into recession by the end of the year, up from 25 percent early last month, the Internet reported.。J.P. Morgan economists, led by Bruce Kasman, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that the U.S. news "suggests that labor demand is weakening more sharply than expected and that initial signs of layoffs are emerging."。The team maintained a 45% chance of a recession through the second half of 2025.。"We modestly revised up our assessment of the risk of a recession, more so than our assessment of the interest rate outlook," Kasman and his colleagues wrote.。JPMorgan now sees only a 30% chance that the Fed and other central banks will keep interest rates high for a long time, and a 50% chance predicted just two months ago。As U.S. inflationary pressures fall, JPMorgan expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November。