The NZDUSD reached a new high for the year on Monday, but the move quickly lost momentum as 买家变成卖家, making the breakout short-lived. The pair has since fallen below the 100-条形移动平均线 on the 4-hour chart—a level that has previously provided reliable support during corrective pullbacks.

Notably, the last few breaks below the 100-bar MA were brief and failed to gain downside traction. The question now is whether this latest move can 自我维持. If so, sellers will look toward the 5月涨势回撤38.2% 0.59948, which also aligns closely with the 周五低点0.5994—a key target to reinforce bearish control.

A firm break below that zone would increase downside momentum, exposing the 200-bar MA为0.5971 and the 50%回撤位0.5966 as the next critical support levels.

On the topside, near-term resistance is now seen between 0.6018和0.6029. As long as the price stays below that range, the 熊市偏见仍在发挥作用.