The NZDUSD has seen choppy price action today, initially rising on the back of the RBA rate decision (no change when a 25 basis point cut was expected) before reversing lower on renewed 美元买入, briefly turning negative on the day. Over the past few hours, the pair has recovered modestly and is now up 0.08%, hovering near unchanged levels as traders position ahead of the 新西兰央行利率决定.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to 将官方现金利率维持在3.25%, after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points from its peak of 5.5%. A majority of NZIER货币政策影子委员会 members also support holding rates steady, citing mixed inflation signals and global uncertainty. Most expect the 货币宽松周期即将结束, with the OCR likely remaining between 2.75%和3.25% over the coming year. While several members see limited room for further cuts, two still favor more easing to support the domestic economy.

From a technical standpoint, the 4-小时图 shows the price fell below both its 100-和200条移动平均线 yesterday. During today’s Asia-Pacific session, the pair briefly reclaimed the 200-bar MA but stalled ahead of the 100-bar MA, currently near 0.6033. Sellers have since pushed the pair lower again, briefly dipping below the 5月低点0.5982向上回撤50%, with the session low reaching 0.59782.

This range — between the 50% midpoint at 0.5982 and the 100-bar MA at 0.6033 — marks the key technical zone for traders. A 突破0.6033上方 would shift the bias more bullish, while a 跌破0.5982 would invite further downside, targeting the 61.8%回撤至0.5950, followed by the key swing area between 0.5882和0.5893. These levels will guide directional conviction ahead of the RBNZ's decision, and after it as well.

目前，该偏差在MA水平以下稍微向下倾斜。然而，价格确实仍接近2024年10月以来的高点。因此买家和卖家都必须证明自己。低于50%可以让卖家获得更多的控制权。在4小时图上超过100条移动平均线，这表明买家又回到了稳固的控制之中。