The USDJPY extended lower today, breaking beneath a critical 挥杆面积在140.248和140.80之间, but quickly rebounded after testing key technical support.

Yesterday’s low stalled right at the 61.8%斐波那契回撤 of the move up from the July 2023 low to the February 2024 high, coming in at 140.483. The price action today confirmed the importance of that retracement level, as buyers have stepped in once again on the move back above the level, lifting the pair 重回挥杆区域高点140.80. The high just reached 140.913. Buyers are making a play.

This marks at least the 该挥杆区域支撑区的第五次测试（参见红色编号圆圈）, with buyers consistently defending the area over the last several months. The repeated bounce underscores its significance from a technical perspective and staying above today, will be bullish play - at least in the short term.

With the rebound gaining momentum, the next upside target comes on the daiy chart, comes in at the 141.67级, which aligns with a prior swing high and intermediate resistance on the daily chart.

To keep the bullish bias intact, buyers will want to see price 保持在140.24-140.80以上. A move below that area would weaken the rebound narrative and shift the short-term bias back to neutral or bearish.

Looking at the hourly chart, USDJPY has seen a sharp and sustained decline throughout April, falling from a high of 4月2日150.48 to a low of 今天139.886—a drop of 1，059点 in just a few weeks. Today’s move broke below both a key 挥杆区域 and the 心理支持水平140.00, before rebounding back above that threshold.

With the price now attempting to push back above the daily swing area, there's growing potential for 空头回补或纠正性买入. The next upside target comes at the 100-小时均线, currently trending lower at 141.686. A break above that level would shift momentum further toward the 200-小时移动平均线为142.54.

Even then, a full retracement remains distant—the 4月交易区间回撤38.2% comes in at 143.93, highlighting that there’s still 恢复空间很大 if buyers can gain traction.

The key question now: 买家能否开始力挽狂澜？
For that to happen, it’s essential that price action 保持在140.248-140.80摆动区域上方, now serving as critical support. Holding that zone keeps the door open for further upside correction. A move back below would weaken the recovery narrative and reassert bearish control.