Trade wars and various economic crises lead tothe search for safe assets. Gold has typically played a haven role during suchperiods, protecting investors from instability. However, given the intricaciesof the modern world and the changes in the global economy and financial marketsin 2025, the question arises: will gold retain its reputation as a"haven" in today's trade wars?

Gold in 2018

In 2018, when the trade war between the U.S.and China began in July with duties on $34 billion worth of goods, goldinitially declined. This was amidst a general increase in risk and uncertaintyin the markets. However, as trade measures worsened and uncertainty in theglobal economy increased, gold began rebounding.

The gold price rose to around $1300 per ouncein 2018, confirming its role as a safe-haven asset in the face of tradeconflicts. Since then, gold has shown incredible growth.

However, it must be remembered that in 2018,gold was not at the level of its historical highs.

Gold falls after tariffs 2018

However, by the end of Donald Trump's firstterm in 2021, gold had delivered impressive returns over the distance. Despiteinitial fluctuations in 2018 due to the outbreak of the trade war, the metalhas strengthened its position as a haven asset over the longer term. Heightenedglobal economic risks, rising inflation expectations, and volatility in stockmarkets have contributed to sustained demand for gold, making it one of themost profitable instruments in investors' portfolios over this period.

Strengthening gold's position towards the end of DonaldTrump's presidential term.

Gold in 2025

In 2025, investors became increasingly focusedon gold again in light of heightened trade wars and decreased global economicconfidence. Unlike in 2018, however, the conditions surrounding gold are lessclear-cut. In 2018, gold fell initially, but as the crisis progressed, itzeroed throttle and grew aggressively. However, in the face of a global restartof geopolitical conflicts and trade sanctions, gold is already gliding atrecord highs and routinely achieving tops.

These dynamics carry respective questions andrisks. From the technical standpoint, gold's prolonged growth and periodicrecord tops may mean the market is overheating, and a corrective phase iscoming. In 2018, gold was merely tapping out the bottom and gaining momentum—it is now coming from the occasion of aggressive growth, approaching new tops.It is essential to develop further analysis leveraging this latest assessmentof gold.

Moreover, significant events that mayinfluence the gold price in 2025 are still happening right now - we're still inthe equation for the provocative action of the respective significant economiesworldwide. It's too early to claim that gold will be the primary haven assetagain. Financial markets have changed.

Gold right now

In the current environment, it is extremelyimportant to monitor gold's behavior closely: its price dynamics, the level ofdemand from institutional and retail investors, and attempts to update thehistorical maximum. The asset is already close to record highs, and anymovement—up or down—may signal a change in market sentiment.

Will gold remain a defensiveasset during trade wars?

Gold has performed well in the 2018-2021 tradewar cycle. However, the current situation is far more complex and multifaceted.Unlike 2018, when gold started from low levels, it is now near all-time highs,raising valid concerns about market overheating and a likely correction.

The financial environment has changed: majorplayers can now utilize alternative instruments such as digital assets,macroeconomic risks have intensified, and global politics have become even lesspredictable. Trade conflicts continue to unfold, and gold's final role in thiscycle is yet to be determined. Whether it will once again become the primaryprotective asset is an open question. One thing is sure: closely monitoring thegold price, demand, and market sentiment will be critical to making informed investmentdecisions in the coming months.