The NZDUSD has exhibited choppy, back-and-forth price action going back to April, and the 4-hour chart reflects that volatility. It’s been far from a clean trend—but even in this turbulence, a swing area between 0.5967 and 0.5977 has consistently (enough) acted as a pivot point, with multiple swing highs and lows forming within it (see red numbered circles).

Yesterday, the pair bounced off the bottom of that swing zone, but today’s renewed U.S. dollar strength has pushed the price back down through that area. The break below 0.5967–0.5977 has tilted the short-term bias more bearish (see red numbered circles on chart).

If sellers can maintain momentum, the next downside targets come in at:

• 0.5922 (recent low)

• A swing area between 0.5882 and 0.5892

• The 38.2% retracement of the April–July move higher, at 0.58765

A sustained move below both the swing area and the 38.2% retracement would give sellers greater control and open the door to deeper downside potential. For now, the pressure is building—but follow-through is key.