EURUSD broke below a key floor area yesterday near 1.1256–1.1265 and is now retesting that level from the underside (see red numbered circles).This area is also where the 61.8% of the range since 2020 high is found (at 1.1271) and the July 2023 high is at 1.12754).

More recently, this zone, acted as a support floor, and is a critical pivot point. Staying below it will keep sellers in control in the short term and validate the downside break.

Earlier today, the pair found support at a swing area that traces back to 2024 (not shown on the chart) between 1.12007 and 1.1213, and the bounce higher is currently testing broken support turned resistance. If sellers can defend this resistance ceiling zone and push back lower through 1.1200, the next major target comes into view at the 50% retracement level near 1.1145.

Key Levels:

• Resistance (broken support): 1.1265–1.1275

• Next downside target: 1.1200 to 1.1213 (swing area from 2024)

• Short-term control: Bears remain in charge below the 1.1265-75.

A move back above the former floor would weaken the bearish bias and open the door for a further rebound.