FundamentalOverview

The latest move lower ingold came overnight as a US Federal Court blocked Trump’s tariffs from goinginto effect. This lifted risk assets and the US Dollar as the first reactionwas to expect even stronger growth ahead, but Trump has many ways to appeal thedecision, so it’s not the end.

In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fedeasing. But in the short-term the repricing in rate cuts expectations couldweigh on gold, so watch out for the economic data and hawkish Fed comments.

For now, we are stuck in abig consolidation as the market awaits the next key catalyst to trigger abreakout and a more sustained trend.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold continues to pull back towards the major upward trendline afterthe rejection from the downward trendline. Overall, we remain stuck in aconsolidation as we await a breakout on either side. The buyers will likely continueto lean on the upward trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while thesellers will look for a break lower to extend the correction into the 2955level next.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we broke below the most recent swing low at 3278 tonight and the pricecame back to retest the level. This is where we can expect the sellers to stepin with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the majorupward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higherto start targeting the major downward trendline next.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum onthis timeframe. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean onthe trendline to target new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higherto increase the bullish bets into the major downward trendline. The red linesdefine the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and tomorrow,we conclude the week with the US PCE price index and the final UMich ConsumerSentiment report.

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