Internet reports that the situation in the Middle East is becoming the "main variable" of the Federal Reserve. Jon Faust, a researcher at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a former senior adviser to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, said that the conflict in Iran "may lead to soaring oil prices, collapse market confidence, and even become a trigger for a recession." But its ultimate impact remains unpredictable. "Economic recessions often start with some kind of shock-such a crisis may be brewing in the Middle East now, and the probability is slightly higher than before," he said in an interview. The Federal Reserve will hold an interest-rate meeting from Tuesday to Wednesday, and the market is generally expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range for the fourth consecutive time. Foster believes that the core suspense of this week's meeting is whether Powell will send a clearer signal: Is the risk of an inflation rebound more likely, or is the weakness of the job market more worrying? "This will reveal the Fed's policy orientation in the second half of the year." He added that the Fed has not yet clearly leaned in either direction.