FundamentalOverview

Not much has happened sincethe end of the Israel-Iran conflict which caused the geopolitical risk premiumto vanish and weighed on gold as the safe haven flows reversed further. Theprice action remains mostly rangebound as we await the next catalysts to get adirection.

In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fedeasing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could triggercorrections in the short term.

The economic data in thenext months will be particularly important for the gold market as Fed memberssound inclined to cut earlier than expected or even more if the inflation dataremains soft or the labour market data deteriorates further.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold continues to edge lower towards the major trendline. That’s where we can expect thebuyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for arally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want tosee the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3120 levelnext.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. Froma risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to rewardsetup around the trendline to position for a break below the major upward trendline.The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase thebullish bets into new highs.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have yet other minor trendline defining the bearish momentum onthis timeframe. Again, the sellers would be better off leaning on the trendlinewith a defined risk above it to position for a break below the major trendline,while the buyers will target breakouts to increase the bullish bets into newhighs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index andthe Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.