Next week's macro outlook: Federal Reserve policy trends and labor market data become market focus
Internet reports that the cryptocurrency market has experienced a considerable sell-off this week, but this occurred after a strong performance last week. With reduced volatility and key data due to be released next week, this is not too surprising, and some relatively weak highs have formed. Bitcoin faces a double-top risk and failed to provide much to counter its impact, while Ethereum pulled back further after hitting a new high on Saturday. Ethereum's prospects are better than its "big brother" Bitcoin, but its performance will still depend on how Bitcoin performs. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: At 21:00 on Wednesday, Musalem, Chairman of the 2025 FOMC Election Committee and St. Louis Fed, delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy; at 22:00 on Wednesday, the U.S. July JOLTs job vacancy, and the monthly rate of U.S. factory orders in July; Thursday 01:30. Kashkari, Chairman of the 2026 FOMC Vote Committee and Minneapolis Fed, participated in a fireside chat; at 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced the Beige Book of the Economic Situation; at 20:30 on Thursday, the United States to August 30, the number of initial jobless claims for the week, the U.S. trade account for July; Thursday 23:30. FOMC Permanent Vote Committee and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York; Friday at 07:00, 2025 FOMC Vote Committee and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivered a speech; Friday at 20:30 U.S. unemployment rate in August, adjusted non-farm payrolls in August, average hourly wage annual rate, monthly rate. The continued weakness in the labor market will not only consolidate market expectations for a September interest rate cut, but will also reignite expectations for a third rate cut of 25 basis points this year. In his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Powell emphasized that in the short term, inflation risks are on the upward side, while employment risks are on the downward side.
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