Last week, USDCAD fell to its lowest level since October 2024, with the pair reaching a low of 1.3534 on Thursday before rebounding modestly on Friday. As seen on the daily chart, the decline started from around 1.4015 on May 13, following a test of the 200-day moving average (green line). The move down briefly pushed the pair below a key trendline support near 1.3643, but downside momentum quickly faded.

Friday’s recovery, aided by the U.S. and Canadian jobs reports, saw the price push above the 100-hour moving average, though it struggled to hold above that level and closed the week near it (see blue line on the chart below).

Earlier today, USDCAD moved lower again—falling below the 100-hour MA—but has since bounced and is now trading back above it as buyers and sellers battle. The 100-hour MA (currently near 1.3687, blue line) is acting as a short-term pivot. Holding above this level may suggest the start of a corrective recovery, but for bullish momentum to build more convincingly, the pair must climb and stay above the 200-hour MA (green line in the chart below at 1.3731.

Notably, the price briefly traded above the 200-hour MA on both May 29 and May 30, but failed to hold, leading to renewed selling pressure. A sustained break above that level would be a key signal for a shift in near-term bias.