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Goldman Sachs: Bank of Japan will remain inactive and next rate hike will be in January next year

According to online reports, Goldman Sachs expects that economic activity and price indicators released since the April monetary policy meeting will continue to show a strengthening of a virtuous cycle in Japan, but the impact of tariff increases may be realized in the future. From a risk management perspective, amid high uncertainty, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged in June while maintaining its stance of gradual interest rate hikes. We maintain our basic scenario and believe that the next policy rate increase will be in January 2026. Regarding the Bank of Japan's mid-term assessment (as of March 2026) of the current plan to reduce Japanese government bond purchases, we expect the existing plan to remain unchanged. Since then, we expect the Bank of Japan to continue to reduce its purchases of government bonds. Although at a slower pace, within a year, the Bank of Japan will accelerate the reduction of bond purchases to around 2 trillion yen per month. This is the Bank of Japan's response to a survey conducted in advance by market participants and is also consistent with the level before the start of QQE. (Jin Shi)

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