• The US Senate passed Trump’s $3.3 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill,” raising the national debt ceiling and fueling inflation concerns.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum may see price gains as investors shift from bonds to crypto amid weakening dollar and fiscal uncertainty.
• If included in the final House version, crypto tax reforms—like de minimis exemptions—could drive broader retail adoption and on-chain activity.

The US Senate has narrowly passed former President Donald Trump’s sweeping $3.3 trillion fiscal package — the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” As the legislation heads to the House for final approval, crypto markets are closely watching the potential impact.

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remained steady Tuesday despite the broader market dip. However, BeInCrypto analysis projects that this bill, if enacted, could reshape investor sentiment and capital allocation.

Bitcoin Likely to Gain as a Fiscal Hedge

The most immediate impact would be on Bitcoin. The bill expected to raise the national debt by over $3 trillion. So, market participants are already bracing for longer-term inflationary pressure.

Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat currency debasement, could benefit from renewed demand.

Most importantly, a weaker dollar and declining confidence in US fiscal management would likely reinforce Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.

Altcoins Could See Uneven Benefits

Ethereum and other large-cap altcoins may also gain short-term support. Risk rotation out of bonds and into alternative assets often lifts crypto broadly.

However, not all tokens are positioned equally. Infrastructure and utility tokens stand to benefit from increasing activity and capital flows. 

The Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) passed the Senate. It returns to the House and will likely pass to Trump's desk for his signature. The more debt, the better for Altcoins. pic.twitter.com/2Aeb8Wp7C9

— Marius BitcoinTAF.com (@LandM_Marius) July 1, 2025

Meme coins and speculative assets, on the other hand, may remain volatile or underperform.

Clearer tax rules — such as exemptions for small crypto transactions — could encourage broader adoption, particularly among retail users.

Retail and Institutional Sentiment Will Likely Diverge

Retail investors could respond positively to lower personal taxes and simplified crypto reporting.

If the final bill includes crypto-friendly tax reforms — including de minimis exemptions and staking income clarity — it could lower friction for small traders and DeFi users.

Institutional sentiment may be more cautious. Rapid debt accumulation and a potentially inflationary outlook could lead institutional investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, especially if the Federal Reserve tightens policy in response.

One Big Beautiful Bill and #Bitcoin taxation

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" includes provisions that could impact Bitcoin and other digital asset taxes. Specifically, it proposes eliminating capital gains tax on Bitcoin transactions under $600, aiming to treat small crypto…

— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) June 29, 2025

Short-Term Outlook: Crypto Market Could Push Higher

If the House passes the bill with crypto provisions intact, Bitcoin and Ethereum may rally further. Capital rotation out of Treasuries, driven by rising US debt and fiscal uncertainty, could drive prices higher.

The total crypto market cap could test the $3.5 to $3.7 trillion range in the near term.

However, the extent of the rally will depend on broader macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate policy, regulatory enforcement, and global liquidity trends.

Medium-Term Outlook: Fed Policy Will Be Key

The longer-term impact on crypto hinges on how the Federal Reserve responds to the bill’s inflationary effects.

If the Fed raises interest rates to counter fiscal expansion, this could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto markets. Conversely, if the Fed remains accommodative, digital assets may continue to benefit.

The Fed is bracing for stagflation:

The number of FOMC members who see upside risks to both their inflation and unemployment forecasts reached 14 in May.

Furthermore, 18 and 17 members saw upside risks to inflation and unemployment, respectively, in March.

On the other hand,… pic.twitter.com/G4674kS2iB

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 1, 2025

The survival of the bill’s crypto provisions will also be crucial. If tax relief measures are stripped out or watered down in the House version, the sector could face renewed headwinds.

Bottom Line

The Senate’s passage of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” marks a major fiscal shift.

If it clears the House, crypto assets — especially Bitcoin — are likely to benefit from growing fiscal concerns and investor desire for alternative hedges.

Yet volatility remains a risk. Fed policy, inflation data, and legislative negotiations will shape how sustainable any crypto rally becomes.