FundamentalOverview

As the market finished toreprice the interest rates expectations for the Fed and got back in line withthe central bank’s baseline scenario of two rate cuts in 2025, the pressure ongold waned and the precious metal started to climb up again.

Last Friday, Trump’s threatof imposing a 50% tariff on EU on June 1^st because of slow progresson trade negotiations boosted gold, but as things improved and the tariffs gotdelayed to the original deadline in July, gold erased all the gains.

In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fedeasing. But in the short-term the repricing in rate cuts expectations couldweigh on gold, so watch out for the economic data and Fed comments.

For now, we are stuck in abig consolidation as the market awaits the next key catalyst to trigger abreakout and a more sustained trend.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold rejected the downward trendline that’s been defining thecorrection. That’s where the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above thetrendline to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline. Thebuyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increasethe bullish bets into a new all-time high.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we had a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. The price broke below the trendline today and the sellers started topile in for a bigger pullback into the 3278 level. That’s where we can expectthe buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to target a breakabove the major downward trendline.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’snot much else we can add here as the sellers remain in control for now and froma risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to rewardsetup around the 3278 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today, we have the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow,we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US JoblessClaims figures and on Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price indexand the final UMich Consumer Sentiment report.

Watch the video below