FundamentalOverview

The USD has been supportedacross the board in the first half of the month as the positive news on thetrade front triggered a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. Oncethe market got back in line with the Fed’s baseline of two rate cuts in 2025,the greenback lost that support and began to weaken again.

For further gains, the USDollar will need either strong economic data to make the market to price out therest of the rate cuts expected by year-end or weak data from its peers to makethe divergence with the Fed stronger.

On the CHF side, not much has changed as the market continues to see the SNB going back to negative rates as negative inflation, as mentioned yesterday by SNB's Chairman Schlegel, cannot be ruled out in Switzerland.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the price pulled all the way back to the most recent swing low at 0.8185 where we got a bounce as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the major downward trendline. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.8038 level next.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above a key downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to pile in around these levels to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for the price falling back below the trendline to target a drop back into the 0.8185 level.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have an interesting support zone around the 0.8240 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.8185 level.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we getthe latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index and the final UMich Consumer Sentimentreport.