The RBNZ cut rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but the decision included a formal vote—an uncommon step that revealed one dissenting member favoring no change, while five supported the cut. Governor Hawkesby described the vote as a "healthy sign," noting that such decisions are typical at potential turning points in policy. He stressed that while the committee reached a consensus on the cash rate outlook, a high degree of uncertainty remains, with a broad range of possible outcomes.

Hawkesby also emphasized that the current policy rate sits in the "neutral zone," reinforcing the RBNZ’s shift toward a more cautious, data-driven stance. There’s no clear bias for future moves, he said, adding that policy decisions from here will be more about "feeling your way" than following a fixed path. The main differences among committee members related to timing rather than direction.

Markets interpreted the vote and Hawkesby’s remarks as less dovish than expected. As a result, the NZDUSD, which initially fell on the rate cut, reversed course and rebounded higher.

Technically, the initial move lower saw the pair break below a key cluster of moving averages, including the 100- and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart and the 200-hour MA. This should have shifted the bias more clearly to the downside and triggered further selling, but the move lacked follow-through. Traders instead responded to the vote outcome and a less dovish tone, which helped reverse the decline and push the price back higher.

However, that rebound also lost steam. The price moved above the 100-hour MA (0.59629) and a nearby swing level at 0.59664, but those breaks failed as well.

In effect, both buyers and sellers attempted to take control—below support and above resistance—but neither side was able to hold ground. The pair is now stuck back between key moving averages, with resistance above at 0.59664 and support below at 0.59316.

For now, the market remains in limbo. Traders have attempted directional moves on both sides, but each push has quickly reversed. Until there's a clean break with sustained momentum, the bias remains neutral and indecisive.