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UOB: Bank of Japan raising interest rates or becoming cautious is constrained by political and economic factors

According to online reports, two analysts from UOB's Global Economics and Market Research Department pointed out in their report that although the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates, it will become more cautious. Analysts said: "In the short term, the market focus will turn to the fragility of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after successive electoral defeats, while Japan is still negotiating a trade agreement with the United States." Due to the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policy, the Bank of Japan may keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, but is expected to maintain its stance on normalizing monetary policy. UOB still expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its September meeting and further raise interest rates to 1.00% in the first quarter of 2026.

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