FundamentalOverview

The S&P 500 continuesto be supported given the lack of bearish drivers. Last Thursday’s NFP lookedlike it could offer a bigger pullback on a hawkish repricing in interest rateexpectations but the positive data came with lower wage growth, which is greatfor the stock market.

In the short-term, the onlyrisk I can see is further hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations, butwe will likely need a hot CPI for that. That should provide a deeper pullback. Butgiven that the Fed's reaction function remains to either wait more or cut, themarket should eventually get back to its upward trend.

We now have two main risksahead for the bulls: tariffs noise and US CPI. The White House is expected tosign trade deals and send letters with the new tariff rates to countries thathave not reached a deal yet. The good news is that we have once again adeadline, which is August 1^st. Therefore, it looks like the usual negotiationstactic to speed up the process and accept the US requests.

On the other hand, we havethe US CPI coming up next week. To keep the trend going, we would likely needsoft inflation figures as a hot report should trigger a deeper pullback.

S&P 500Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that the S&P 500 continued to print new all-time highs pretty much everydayonce the price broke above the February highs. From a risk managementperspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around theprevious all-time high at 6,160-ish level to position for the continuation ofthe uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breakinglower to pile in for a drop into the 6,000 level next.

S&P 500 TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have an upward trendline defining the uptrend. If we were toget a pullback all the way into the trendline, we can expect the dip-buyers tolean on it to position for a rally into new all-time highs with a better riskto reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower toincrease the bearish bets into the 5,800 level next.

S&P 500 TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keeppushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to targeta deeper pullback into the 6,236 level first and, upon a further break lower,into the 6,160 price area.

UpcomingCatalysts

The only notableevents this week are Trump’s letters on tariffs and trade deals, andthe US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday.