The European Central Bank may remain inactive and Lagarde may reiterate downside risks to growth
Internet reports that the European Central Bank may choose to postpone interest rate cuts to deal with the economic risks posed by Trump's tariffs. In their final decision before entering the seven-week summer break, policymakers are likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 2 percent on Thursday until the tariffs are actually implemented and their impact can be more accurately assessed. But policymakers are aware that risks lie: in addition to tariff concerns, a stronger euro suppresses price prospects and further squeezes exporters, while France's public finances could spawn a new political crisis. In this context, the European Central Bank may acknowledge that the possibility of a rate cut in September will increase. Based on this, Morgan Stanley economists said President Christine Lagarde may reiterate in Thursday's statement that growth risks are "leaning towards the downside." "We expect the committee's language after its July 24 meeting to be similar to its June statement, leaving open the possibility of further rate cuts but no commitment." (Jin Shi)
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