FundamentalOverview

The price action in gold continues to be rangebound amid some mixed drivers.The real yields rose recently and that kept a lid on the upside, but there wasno signal of inflationary pressures in the economic data and interest ratesexpectations remained unchanged.

There is a compelling narrative emerging since the Trump-Biden debate thatTrump has basically already won the elections and his policies will beinflationary. That would keep real yields higher for longer or even lead to asizeable increase.

Although, this narrative has some good arguments, it looks premature toprice in such developments now given that the context is different. The marketmight have moved on it so much mainly because there was nothing else happening.

In the next weeks though we will get many key economic releases includingthe NFP and CPI, so it will be interesting to see how the market will react tothese catalysts.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold continues to maintain a rangebound price action. From a riskmanagement perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setuparound the key 2277 support zone where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.

The sellers, on the otherhand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to change the biasand increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major trendline where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacciretracement level for confluence.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that the price is now trading inside a tight range between the 2320 leveland the 2337 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher togain more conviction and position for a rally into the 2387 level next. Thesellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to keeptargeting a drop into the 2277 support.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the tight range as we await the key catalysts in the next days.If the price stays below the 2320 level, it will keep the bias more bearish inthe short term, while staying above the 2337 level would keep it more bullish. Thered lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, weget the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMCMeeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day.Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

See the video below