The NZDUSD reached a new high for the year on Monday, but the move quickly lost momentum as バイヤーが売り手になる, making the breakout short-lived. The pair has since fallen below the 100-バー移動平均 on the 4-hour chart—a level that has previously provided reliable support during corrective pullbacks.

Notably, the last few breaks below the 100-bar MA were brief and failed to gain downside traction. The question now is whether this latest move can 自立する. If so, sellers will look toward the 0.59948 で 5 月のラリーから 38.2% の retracement, which also aligns closely with the 金曜安値 0.5994—a key target to reinforce bearish control.

A firm break below that zone would increase downside momentum, exposing the 200-バー MA 0.5971 and the 0.5966 で 50% のリトレースレベル as the next critical support levels.

On the topside, near-term resistance is now seen between 0.6018 と 0.6029. As long as the price stays below that range, the 弱気バイアスは残る.