The NZDUSD has seen choppy price action today, initially rising on the back of the RBA rate decision (no change when a 25 basis point cut was expected) before reversing lower on renewed 米ドル購入, briefly turning negative on the day. Over the past few hours, the pair has recovered modestly and is now up 0.0 8%, hovering near unchanged levels as traders position ahead of the RBNZ 金利決定.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to 公式キャッシュレートを 3.25% に維持, after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points from its peak of 5.5%. A majority of NZIER 金融政策シャドウボード members also support holding rates steady, citing mixed inflation signals and global uncertainty. Most expect the 金融緩和サイクルは終わりに近づいています, with the OCR likely remaining between 2.75% と 3.25% over the coming year. While several members see limited room for further cuts, two still favor more easing to support the domestic economy.

From a technical standpoint, the 4-時間チャート shows the price fell below both its 100-200 bar 移動平均 yesterday. During today’s Asia-Pacific session, the pair briefly reclaimed the 200-bar MA but stalled ahead of the 100-bar MA, currently near 0.6033. Sellers have since pushed the pair lower again, briefly dipping below the 5 月の安値である 0.5982 から 50% のリトレースメント, with the session low reaching 0.59782.

This range — between the 50% midpoint at 0.5982 and the 100-bar MA at 0.6033 — marks the key technical zone for traders. A 0.6033 を上回るブレーク would shift the bias more bullish, while a 0.5982 を下回る would invite further downside, targeting the 0.5950 で 61.8% のリトレース, followed by the key swing area between 0.5882 と 0.5893. These levels will guide directional conviction ahead of the RBNZ's decision, and after it as well.

今、バイアスは MA レベルを下回る下方に少し傾いています。しかし、価格は 2024 年 10 月に戻る高値に近づいています。だから買い手と売り手は両方自分自身を証明する必要があります。50% を下回ると、売り手はさらに制御できます。4 時間チャートの 100 バー移動平均を上回り、買い手がしっかりとコントロールしていることを示しました。