The EURUSD attempted to break above its 200-1 時間移動平均 1.13510 in early U.S. trading, but—just like on Friday—buyers lacked follow-through and momentum quickly faded. The failed breakout attracted fresh selling interest, and the price has since rotated lower, falling back below both the 200 時間 and 100-時間移動平均 (the latter at 1.13354), shifting short-term control back to the sellers.

The next downside target lies at 1.13072, a low from the week before last. A break below that level would open the door toward the key 1.1271 と 1.12754 の間のスイングエリア. Beyond that, the 3 月〜 4 月のラリーの 38.2% リトレースは 1.12505 に座っている—a critical level for buyers to defend if they want to maintain control of the broader uptrend.

Despite buyers struggling to extend gains, sellers also have work to do. Only a firm move below 1.12505 level (the 38.2% retracement) would signal that they are regaining more meaningful control, challenging the buyers from the 843-pip rally from 3 月 27 日の安値 1.0 729 から 4 月 21 日の高値 1.15726 まで.