After a soft European open, an early rally in the Asian session saw the EURUSD stall at the 200-hour MA (≈ 1.1518) and slipped under the 100-hour line (1.1496). Dip-buyers on the 2nd move lower on the day, stepped in just ahead of last week’s swing floor at 1.1445, marking another successful defense of that level (see green numbered circles).

Fresh USD selling followed dovish remarks from Fed Governor Bowman—echoing Waller’s “July cut” hint from Friday—while calmer headlines out of the Middle East nudged Treasury yields lower. The pair powered back above both hourly averages and is now poking at Friday’s peak near 1.1543. A clean break would confirm the intraday bullish reversal and target swing highs from the last few weeks at 1.1578, 1.1614 and the high for the year (and going back to 2021) at 1.16297.

相反，如果未能保持双MA区间（1.1518-1.1496），则会将动力重新带回卖家手中，并将注意力重新集中在1.1466和关键的1.1445底部上。

关键技术水平

• 抗性：

  • 1.1543 -周五/日高点

  • 1.1578 - 24 5月摇摆上限

  • 1.1614 - 6月16日以来的高点

  • 1.16297 -年内最高点并可追溯到2021年

• 技术支持：

  • 1.1518 - 200小时MA

  • 1.1496 - 100小时MA

  • 1.1445-挥杆水平（绿色圆圈）

  • 1.1416 - 38.2%回撤位

欧元兑美元维持在1.1518-1.1496上方，而欧元兑美元则维持在1.1518-1.1496上方。