The USDCAD surged briefly on early Friday following President Trump’s formal letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, announcing a 对加拿大进口商品征收35%关税，自8月1日起生效. The move cited national security concerns over fentanyl smuggling and a persistent trade deficit. While the announcement initially sparked bullish momentum, the rally failed to hold as price action quickly reversed.

尽管如此，周五关税的初步走高，使价格从周三和周四起升至1.3710的波动水平上方，并从5月份的高点1.37208下跌了38.2%，但势头放缓并失败。买家有机会，但他们错过了。

After falling back below the 1.3710, the pair moved up toward 1.3710 NA会议 off the volatility from the jobs report which was stronger than expected (but most was temporary workers), matching the week’s earlier highs, but could not break through (see green numbered circle on the chart above).

Sellers leaned into resistance, and price rotated back down toward the 100-小时均线 (currently around 1.3682), which has been acting as a pivot point amid choppy, rangebound trading since Wednesday. The 200-小时MA is also rising and approaching the 1.3649-1.3651支撑区, a level where the pair found solid footing on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday last week paren see red numbered circles on the chart above).

The failure to sustain the tariff-inspired breakout suggests hesitation among traders, likely due to exemptions under USMCA. Until the pair can clearly break above 1.3710 38.2%回撤至1.37208, or below 1.3649 （从上周和200小时移动平均线的短期4）, expect continued two-way trading, with the moving averages acting as key technical guides.