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Since April, AUDUSD has seen its fair share of volatility. The overall 偏见倾斜得更高, with 周五的激增 marking the 11月以来的最高水平. But the script flipped fast.

周二大幅下跌 saw price action tumble to the 38.2%回撤位 from the 六月反弹. After a bounce in Asia, the early U.S. session brought more weakness, dragging the pair 低于关键的斐波那契水平 and to a low of 0.6495.

Then came the 特朗普震惊: firing headlines sent AUDUSD ripping higher—高于200小时移动平均线0.6541—but buyers ran out of steam just shy of the 100-小时MA为0.6554. Once the 拒绝命中, the pair dropped again.

Now, AUDUSD trades 低于100小时和200小时平均值 and under a 临界摇摆区介于0.6535和0.65565之间. That keeps the 短期偏见走低.

接下来是什么？
A break and hold 低于0.6509 would open the door to 0.6495 and 0.6483—关键支撑位 tied to both the 50%回撤 and last week’s lows. On the flip side, 回收200小时MA could flip the tone, but for now, 卖家仍处于控制之中.

Watch 0.6509-低于它，卖家就会收紧控制。