在上面的视频中，美元兑日元以-0.78%的跌幅领先，开始了美国的交易日。美元兑日元自上周一达到148.02的峰值以来，目前已下跌超过500点。今天的低点达到了6月13日的低点142.78（非常对称-见下图）。6月13日的低点开始了与过去7天的跌幅类似的上涨。

欧元和英镑相对于美元也走强（美元趋势仍在继续），美元相对于这些货币分别下跌-0.26%和-0.22%。

在上面的视频中，我重点关注了动作的技术性，重点关注偏见、风险和目标。

特朗普总统表示，这项美丽的大法案正在“进行”中。

In news headlines, the Eurozone headline inflation for June came in at 同比+2.0%, matching expectations and slightly up from 5月份+1.9%. 核心CPI保持稳定在+2.4%, also in line with forecasts and unchanged from the prior month. With inflation showing limited movement, the data is unlikely to alter the current narrative, and the 预计欧洲央行将在整个夏季暂停货币政策

美国东部时间上午9：30，欧洲央行年度辛特拉论坛将举行一场备受瞩目的政策小组会议，全球主要央行行长将出席。该小组定于格林尼治标准时间1330（美国东部时间0930）举行，成员包括美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德、英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利、日本央行行长上田一夫和韩国央行行长李昌勇。预计他们的讨论将为当前全球货币政策方向提供重要见解。表面上看，这听起来是一个放烟花的机会，但实际上，所有人加在一起，他们可能会让事情变得相当标准，如果推动的话，就会变得矛盾。不要指望鲍威尔主席会回答任何有关特朗普总统及其任期的问题，也不要指望他将利率下调至1%的呼吁，只是说他在通胀和就业方面为人民服务。

隔夜央行新闻和评论：

• 日本央行的马苏 expressed 没有强烈的分歧 with the view that 基本通胀仍低于2%的目标, highlighting the need to 仔细审查近期大宗商品飙升后的价格动态, particularly with reference to 水稻. He noted that 目前的情况不足以证明立即加息, and any policy moves must be approached 谨慎. While a 日元贬值 may have 提高企业利润, it has also led to 对消费的负面影响 due to higher import costs. Masu acknowledged that the 日本央行最终将需要减持其持有的大量ETF, but stressed that this must be done 仔细. When asked whether he is a 鸽子或鹰, he said he “可能站在中间” without a strong bias.
• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos commented that the eurozone economy is expected to see near-zero growth in Q2 and Q3, and that the risk of inflation undershooting the 2% target is minimal. Notably, 他表示，欧元兑美元在1.17是可以接受的，甚至1.20也可以容忍，but anything higher would pose challenges—suggesting a soft cap on the currency's rise. 他还淡化了进一步降息的效果，emphasizing the need for greater economic certainty. His openness on specific exchange rate levels stands out as rare and potentially market-moving.
• 欧洲央行政策制定者约阿希姆·内格尔 stated that 货币政策目前处于中性区域, with 通胀目前处于稳定阶段. However, he cautioned that the 欧洲央行不能自满 about potential inflationary pressures. His comments reinforce the broader narrative that 欧洲央行夏季处于暂停模式, with no imminent policy changes expected in the near term.
• 英国央行行长贝利 emphasized the need to 密切监控通胀下降的影响, noting that the 劳动力市场正在疲软. He stated that the 利率路径将逐渐走低 and expressed 对周期性生产率反弹的怀疑. Bailey acknowledged a 长期债券收益率曲线变陡, though he sees 英国的情况没有什么不寻常的 in that regard. He dismissed the idea that 量化紧缩（QT）正在导致经济急剧上升, attributing it instead to 全球经济不确定性加剧. He also believes there can be 没有稳定低通胀，就没有持续增长. While investors seem 不担心英国债务生存能力, 不断上升的不确定性正在影响经济活动和商业信心, with firms telling him they are 推迟投资决策.

关于美国贸易协议，昨天晚些时候哈塞特暗示交易更有可能在7月4日之后进行。然而，WH暗示与印度即将达成协议。

• From the EU, they are reported to be demanding 关键部门立即减免关税 as part of any trade deal with the US, insisting it take effect as soon as an initial agreement is reached—not delayed until a final deal. 许多欧盟成员国认为没有这一条件的协议不可接受, according to Reuters sources. Trump will likely respond, it depends on what are you giving me.
• Meanwhile the FT is reporting that The 特朗普政府 is shifting its trade strategy toward 更窄的、针对特定问题的协议 in an effort to secure 7月9日恢复高额互惠关税（高达50%）之前，快速获胜, according to the 金融时报. These “原则上的协议” aim to 推迟更严厉的关税 for cooperating countries, though a 10%基准关税 would still apply during ongoing broader negotiations. This marks a 放弃特朗普早些时候在90天内达成90项全面协议的计划. Despite the narrowed focus, the administration is still 权衡关键行业的目标关税.

昨天更广泛的美国指数创下新纪录。如今，这些指数略有下降。

• 道琼斯工业平均指数-48 177点
• 标准普尔指数-17.7点
• 纳斯达克指数-80点

美国债务市场收益率走低，有助于支撑美元下跌（以及特朗普总统的偏见）

• 2-一年期收益率3.715%，-0.6个基点
• 5-年收益率3.71%，-1.2个基点
• 10年期收益率4.206%，-1.9个基点
• 30年期收益率或.748%，-2.6个基点

在其他市场：

• 原油上涨0.43美元或0.66%，至65.04美元
• 黄金交易上涨48美元或1.4%，至3352美元
• 比特币下跌606美元，至106，573美元