唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）就任美国总统期间提出了一系列大胆且非常规的政策提议，当时许多专家认为这些提议是激进的。考虑到竞选活动的长度和他平台的公共性质，人们会认为市场有足够的时间来准备并提前对潜在的政策转变进行定价。然而，事实证明，投资者对随之而来的动荡程度措手不及。事实上，唐纳德·特朗普上任的头100天的特点是全球金融市场极度波动和不确定性。在本文中，Octa经纪人回顾了特朗普的政策并分析了其对全球金融市场的后果。

介绍

唐纳德·特朗普于2025年1月20日上任，此后市场波动性不断上升。特朗普的一些举措，尤其是他激进的贸易政策，对股市、货币和大宗商品造成了冲击，导致零售外汇交易员争先恐后地进行调整。与此同时，大型投资者难以适应拟议改革的快速步伐及其深远后果。总体而言，特朗普总统上任的头100天里，风险厌恶情绪加剧，不确定性普遍存在，导致资产价格和货币汇率急剧波动，因为交易员对特朗普总统及其新政府的每一项政策公告、推文和演讲做出反应。以下是一些令人震惊的日子。

重大市场变动事件

●20 January. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)dropped by more than 1.20% after news surfaced that the new administration willnot immediately impose trade tariffs, prompting a rally in the currencies ofsome U.S. trading partners: notably, the Mexican peso (MXN), the Euro (EUR) andthe Canadian dollar (CAD). It should be noted that prior to the sharp decline,the greenback had been rising almost uninterruptedly since September 2024,almost reaching a three-year high ahead of Trump's inauguration as the marketassumed that higher tariffs would spur inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve(Fed) to pursue a more hawkish monetary policy.

●1-3二月. In the future, historians maylabel 1 February as the official start of a global trade war. On this day,Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along withan additional 10% tariff on China. The market's reaction was highly negative.U.S. stock futures slumped in early Asian trading on Monday, 3 February, withNasdaq futures down 2.35% and S&P 500 futures 1.8% lower. U.S. oil pricesjumped more than $2, while gasoline futures jumped more than 3%. Meanwhile, theCanadian dollar and Mexican peso weakened substantially, with USDCAD surgingpast the 1.47900 mark, a 22-year high, and USDMXN touching a 3-year high aseconomists warned that both countries were at risk of recession once thetariffs kick in. Later that day, Trump agreed to delay 25% tariffs on Canadaand Mexico for a month after both countries agreed to take tougher measures tocombat migration.

●3-5三月. This is when the market began toseriously worry about the health of the global economy and a risk-off sentimentbecame evident. As fresh 25% tariffs on most imports from Mexico and Canada,along with the 20% tariffs on Chinese goods, were scheduled to take effect on 4March, investors started to sell-off the greenback and flock into gold (XAUUSD)as well as into alternative safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc(CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY). In just three trading sessions (from 3–5March), DXY plunged by more than 3% while the gold price gained more than 2%.

●6三月. DonaldTrump signed an executive order establishing a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve.However, it was unclear how exactly this reserve would work and just how muchit would differ from Bitcoin holdings already in place. Many crypto enthusiastswere disappointed, which triggered a five-day downturn in BTCUSD, culminatingin Bitcoin briefly dipping below the crucial $80,000 level on 10 March.

●2四月. The trade war entered the nextstage when Trump unveiled his long-promised 'reciprocal' tariffs strategy,essentially imposing import duties on more than a hundred countries. The marketroute began with equity markets losing billions of dollars in valuation.S&P 500 lost more than 11% in just two days, while DXY dropped to a freshsix-month low.

●9-11四月. Trade war drama continued tounfold. Financial markets were stunned by President Trump's abrupt reversal ontariffs. Duties on trading partners, which had taken effect less than 24 hoursprior, were largely rolled back as the President announced a 90-day freeze onthe reciprocal tariffs. However, a 10% blanket tariff was still applied to mostnations. In contrast, the trade conflict with China escalated sharply.Following China's 84% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, the U.S. increasedtariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. This, combined with existing duties,brought the total U.S. tariff burden on Chinese imports to 145%. Kar Yong Ang,a financial market analyst at Octa broker, comments: '我会永远记住那一天。交易员们对特朗普贸易政策的突然转变感到震惊，并真的很难理解这一切。下意识的反应是简单地购买黄金并稍后提出问题。'

除了针对国家的关税外，特朗普还对铝和钢铁征收了额外的进口关税，并下令对铜进口关税进行调查。总体而言，他激进的贸易政策引发了对全球衰退的猜测，这解释了为什么黄金一直是特朗普上任以来表现最好的资产之一。卡尔永安评论：

'我们正在处理一个相当不寻常的情况。甚至全球经济萧条也不是不可能的，因为关税可能会扰乱供应链，损害全球产出，同时也会加剧通胀压力。这肯定会使货币政策决策复杂化。如果我用两个词来形容特朗普的头100天，那就是"为安全而奔跑”。'

事实上，特朗普最近对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的公开批评为紧张的投资者情绪火上浇油。

总体而言，特朗普政策的全面效果尚未显现，但对全球贸易和宏观经济的潜在影响是巨大的。国际货币基金组织以贸易紧张局势升级为由，将2025年全球经济增长预测下调至2.8%，并警告称，如果贸易战持续下去，可能会出现股市崩盘和世界经济萎缩7%。尽管美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特暗示将缓和美国的紧张局势中国贸易紧张局势，显然投资者仍然应该习惯生活在波动性和不确定性加剧的时期。

Kar Yong Angon对普通零售交易员提出了这样的建议：“更多地关注短期交易，而不是长期头寸交易，减少对美国股票的敞口，多元化投资于黄金和瑞士法郎等其他避险货币，最重要的是，保持头脑清醒，准备好快速从一种头寸切换到另一种头寸”。

合规提醒：差价合约（CFDs）交易风险很高，可能不适合所有投资者。情绪交易可能会增加这种风险。始终量入为出进行交易并了解所涉及的风险。

关于Octa

Octa是一家国际经纪商，自2011年以来一直在全球提供在线交易服务。它为来自180个国家/地区开设了超过5200万个交易账户的客户提供金融市场和各种服务的免佣金访问。为了帮助客户实现投资目标，Octa提供免费教育网络研讨会、文章和分析工具。

该公司参与了慈善和人道主义倡议的综合网络，包括改善教育基础设施和支持当地社区的临时救济项目。

自成立以来，Octa已荣获100多个奖项，包括全球外汇奖颁发的“2024年全球最可靠经纪商”奖和《全球品牌》杂志颁发的“2024年最佳移动交易平台”奖。