According to online reports, analysts at Societe Generale believe that the Fed's moderately restrictive stance has been maintained for too long and there is "excessive tightening." Therefore, although there are still concerns about inflation stickiness, the balance of risks (employment and inflation) in the Federal Reserve's dual mission has tilted towards employment. Based on this, it is necessary to take more vigorous policy adjustments (i.e., a 50 basis point rate cut). In fact, they are not the only ones holding this view. Standard Chartered Bank is the only other institution to predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week. In any case, it should be warned that this view is contrary to current market pricing and the general consensus-the current market is generally expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. As previously mentioned, traders currently believe that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is only about 4%. (Jin Shi)