U.S. President Donald Trump previously announced a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs, which is set to expire in July. However, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius believes Trump will once again postpone implementation at the deadline, allowing more time for trade negotiations.

This view from Goldman aligns with recent comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent. Last week, in testimony before a Senate subcommittee, Secretary Bessent noted that with the July 9 deadline approaching, the U.S. is prepared to give trade partners additional time to negotiate. “I believe countries that are negotiating in good faith may receive an extension,” Bessent said.

The team led by Jan Hatzius estimates that the overall U.S. tariff rate has already increased by about 10 percentage points this year. For certain sectors—such as semiconductors, communications equipment, pharmaceuticals, and copper—the tariff rate is expected to be even higher.

Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if the final effective tariff rate ends up around 13–15%, Hatzius said, referring to the base 10% rate plus additional sector-specific surcharges.

Goldman also predicts that U.S.-China trade tensions are unlikely to escalate further—but neither will they ease. The firm expects current tariff levels between the two countries to remain in place for an extended period.