The USDJPY is stretching to the upside. The pair has been weakening after the Pres Trump imposed tariffs on Japan goods including:

• Broad 25% tariff on all imports from Japan (effective August 1)

In addition, they have:

• 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts (March 2025)

• 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (June 2025)

Technically, the price has been building over the last few trading weeks and has extended above and away from the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2025 high to the 2025 low. That level comes in at 147.135.

Looking at the hourly chart below, the price found support at the retracement level today. That base is a bullish signal, suggesting that buyers are continuing to lean against key technical levels on dips.

Another bullish technical development occurred last week when the price held near the rising 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart) during two separate dips. Each time, buyers stepped in, preventing a deeper decline and reinforcing the moving average as solid support.

Staying above key technical areas—such as moving averages and retracement levels—keeps the bullish bias in place, especially during corrective pullbacks. These levels serve as decision points where buyers tend to reenter and defend the trend.