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Highlights of the Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Decision: A Comparative Study of FOMC Terms, Powell's Term and the Independence of the Federal Reserve

Network reports that on July 31, the highlights of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision are as follows: FOMC statement: 1. Voting ratio: Or pass the interest rate decision with a 9-2 vote. Directors Bowman and Waller are expected to vote against it. 2. Comparison of wording: It is difficult to make substantive changes, or simplify the expression of uncertainty in the economic outlook and acknowledge the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year. 3. Scale of balance sheet reduction: The high probability remains unchanged (monthly reduction of US$5 billion in US debt and US$35 billion in MBS). Powell Conference: 1. Interest rate outlook: How to view the expectation of "two interest rate cuts" implied in the June dot chart? Will it give clues on the prospects of interest rate cuts in September? 2. Economic data: We emphasize the importance of data and continue the communication style of relying on data and making decisions on a case-by-case basis. 3. Inflation and tariffs: Either remain cautious and reiterate maintaining price stability; if you emphasize the upside risks of tariffs to inflation, you may be more hawkish than expected. 4. Term and independence: In the face of frequent pressure from Trump, there is a high probability that he will not respond substantively and is expected to reiterate that he will remain independent and professional during his term.

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