Historical pattern before and after Citi's first interest rate cut in the resumption cycle: U.S. stocks and bonds rose both, gold strengthened first and then flattened
According to online reports, according to Citi research, based on historical data, the median performance of U.S. stocks and bonds before and after the first interest rate cut was positive. The median gain for stocks in the 50 days after the interest rate cut is about 5%, but there are downside risks in the event of a hard landing. Bonds also benefit from expected and actual rate cuts, with yields usually reaching lows around the time of the first rate cut. The performance of the US dollar index showed the characteristics of weakening first and then flattening. It usually weakened before the interest rate cut, but entered a range of fluctuations after the interest rate cut. Precious metals such as gold also rose before the introduction of easing policies, but their performance became flat after the actual interest rate cut, showing more range trading patterns. Analysts at Citi said these historical patterns will be largely verified in 2024, but bond prices peaked near the first rate cut. At that time, the market priced interest rate cuts more aggressively, while the pricing in this cycle was relatively moderate, so concerns about the bond outlook were alleviated. (News from Wall Street)
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