Market analysis美股期货于亚洲时段持续受到中美贸易协议预期支撑而小幅走高。不过，中美关税休战期倒数两周，美国财长贝森特与中国国务院副总理何立峰会谈后指出，尽管中方态度更为积极，双方仍需解决部分技术性问题，最终是否延长休战将交由总统川普决定。然川普随后在社群媒体上发文强调，未计划主动与习近平会面，除非获得正式邀请。此言论再次为中美关系投下变数，市场避险情绪升温，VIX 波动率指数单日跳升 6.32%。另外，美国昨日公布的经济数据喜忧参半，美国 7 月咨商会消费者信心指数从 95.2 上升至 97.2，高于预期的 95，惟美国 6 月 JOLTs 职位空缺数从前值 771.2 万人下滑至 743.7 万人，低于预期的 750 万人，进一步削弱买盘动能，美股成交量下滑，除费半因超微（AMD）、博通（AVGO）逆势收红，其余主指震荡收低，跌幅均不超过 1%。类股方面，防御型板块如房地产、公用事业受惠于美债殖利率走低，涨势居前，其中电力股如 Duke Energy（DUK）、NextEra Energy（NEE）表现稳健；必需型消费品同样走高。反观工业类股的物流族群 UPS（UPS）财报失望且未提供全年指引，股价重挫超过 10%，拖累 FedEx（FDX）下跌逾 3%。波音（BA）业绩虽符合预期，但现金流回正时点延后，股价下挫约 4.4%。非必需消费股：邮轮运营商皇家加勒比集团（RCL）上调全年展望但未让市场买单，重挫 5%，拖累 Booking（BKNG）与 Airbnb（ABNB）同步回落。汽车类股同样疲软，特斯拉（TSLA）、通用汽车（GM）及福特（F）跌幅落在 1.0% ~ 2.5% 之间。资讯科技类股部分表现分歧。EDA 巨头 Cadence（CDNS）财报优异劲扬 9.7%，带动Synopsys（SNPS）涨 7.3%。但软体股 Palo Alto（PANW）、Palantir（PLTR）、Salesforce（CRM）等则遭遇卖压而回落。半导体股中，超微（AMD）因目标价调升而上涨2.2%、博通（AVGO）创历史新高。反观辉达（NVDA）、应用材料（AMAT）、英特尔（INTC）则小幅回落。

 

Quick view of financial report

Starbucks adds green apron services to respond to six consecutive seasons of decline in same-store sales and revitalize the store experience

Starbucks (SBUX) reported its latest earnings report. Same-store sales fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, down 2% globally, but revenue reached US$9.5 billion, better than market expectations. Chief Executive Brian Niccol said that the transformation plan is progressing faster than expected and hopes to reverse the operating decline by strengthening store interactions and improving digital and physical service experiences. The North American and China markets have shown a narrowing decline and positive growth respectively. Coupled with the large-scale implementation of "Green Apron Services", it is expected to gradually improve customer adhesion and visitor numbers.

Although profits and transactions are still suppressed in the short term, Starbucks is using diversified strategies to deepen brand differentiation and reshape growth momentum. The second half of the year is expected to become a critical period for observing the results of the transformation.

Key summary:

• Financial performance is stable and under pressure
  第三季营收为 95 亿美元，优于预期的 93.1 亿美元；经调整每股盈余为 0.50 美元。
  全球同店销售下滑 2%，大于预期跌幅的 1.3%；净利为 5.58 亿美元，较去年同期的 10.5 亿美元大幅下滑。

• North American market declines converge
  同店销售下滑 2%，优于市场预估的 2.5%；交易量减少 3%，但平均客单价提升 1%。
  校园门市表现亮眼，非会员顾客交易重返成长，门市班次完成率创新高。

• China market turns positive growth
  同店销售成长 2%，交易量增加 6%，但平均客单价下降。
  星巴克考虑出售部分中国业务股权，潜在估值达 100 亿美元，并强调仍会保留重要持股。

• Green apron service fully implemented
  透过员工互动与服务升级提升顾客体验，已在 1,500 间门市试行并达成 80% 四分钟出餐目标。
  未来一年将投资 5 亿美元于人力与技术，包括 Smart Queue 智慧排班系统应用。

• Products and digital innovation are synchronized
  将推出蛋白冷泡奶盖、椰子水饮品与精致餐食，并更新 Starbucks App 与奖励计划。
  预定 2026 年第二季举办投资者日，持续释出转型进展与策略方向。

 

UPS's profit and revenue fell in the second quarter due to U.S. -China trade policies

UPS announced its second-quarter financial report, showing that revenue and profits in the quarter were lower than the same period last year due to the impact of the new U.S. tariffs on low-priced goods from China and the uncertainty of overall trade policies. Although some tariffs have been lowered, consumer demand has not rebounded significantly, putting pressure on UPS's international business. The company did not update its full-year financial forecast, indicating a conservative attitude towards the global macroeconomic outlook. Stock prices have fallen by more than 19% since the beginning of the year, indicating that the market is becoming more cautious about the prospects for logistics demand.

UPS, as the global economic windstorm, its financial report revealed that international e-commerce and global trade are still hit by weak policies and demand, and operating pressure may not be alleviated in the short term.

Key summary:

• Financial report performance fell short of expectations
  第二季调整后每股盈余为 1.55 美元，低于去年同期的 1.79 美元。
  公司未更新全年 2025 年财测，仍维持先前预估营收 890 亿美元不变。

• New tariffs impact cross-border business
  美国针对中国800美元以下商品取消免税优惠后，消费者减少来自 Temu、Shein 等平台的跨境订单。
  虽然关税从 120% 调降至 54%，但国际出货量仍受到显著压力。

• Demand for low-cost e-commerce sources weakens
  低价消费品需求转弱冲击UPS最赚钱的中美航线，造成高毛利国际运输量下滑。
  客户可能因成本上升改用其他物流商或转向本地采购。

• Market is pessimistic about operating prospects
  UPS股价年初至今下跌逾 19%，显著逊于 FedEx (FDX) 同期跌幅的 14%。
  财报公布后盘前交易下跌 1.4%，反映市场对其获利能力的担忧。

• The future is still highly uncertain
  公司连两季未提供更新财测，显示对经济与贸易环境仍无明确掌握。
  全球景气、关税政策与电商模式变化，将成UPS下半年营运关键风险。

 

Novo Nordisk shares plunged 23%, as a CEO change and a downward revision of Wegovy's growth forecast triggered market turmoil

Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK) announced a coaching change and revised its full-year revenue and operating profit outlook, mainly due to weakening sales growth expectations in the U.S. market for its weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic. The new CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar will take office in August, and the market is still holding a wait-and-see attitude towards this leadership transition and subsequent strategic direction. Affected by the news, Novo Nordisk's share price fell 26%, and closed down 23%. Since the beginning of the year, the decline has exceeded 42%.

Wegovy faces challenges such as slow market expansion, pressure from competing products and continued circulation of generic drugs. Coupled with poor results in trials of a new generation of obesity drugs, Novo Nordisk may have difficulty reversing market confidence in the short term.

Key summary:

• The downward revision of financial forecasts causes stock prices to plummet
  全年销售成长预期由原本的13%至21%，下修至8%至14%；营业利益成长预期也从16%至24%降至10%至16%。
  股价当日下挫23%，年初迄今跌幅已逾42%。

• Wegovy and Ozempic sales momentum weakens
  美国市场需求放缓，因仿制GLP-1药物持续流通、市场拓展不如预期且竞争加剧。
  FDA先前对原厂供应短缺的裁定也间接助长仿制药流行，影响正品销售。

• High-level changes cause uncertainty
  原CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen五月遭突袭撤换，资深高层Doustdar将于8月7日接任。
  虽具全球营运经验，但市场对领导交接与策略延续性仍观望。

• CagriSema's R & D setback drags down market confidence
  下一代肥胖药CagriSema试验结果未达预期，加剧市场对成长性的疑虑。
  与竞争对手在研药品差距缩小，未来新药竞争将更为激烈。

• The company expects pressure to ease in the second half of the year
  官方仍预期仿制GLP-1药物流通将逐步减少，有助恢复正品销售动能。
  预计8月6日公布第二季完整财报，成为市场观察后续走势的关键。

 

PayPal's trading profit growth slowed in the second quarter, sparking market concerns, and its share price plunged 8%

Although PayPal (PYPL)'s second-quarter revenue and earnings per share both exceeded market expectations, the growth of its core indicator "trading profit" slowed down, causing market confidence to be frustrated and its share price fell more than 8% that day. The company is currently focusing on optimizing high-margin businesses, including enhancing the brand checkout experience and enhancing the business applications of Venmo and Braintree. However, free cash flow was significantly lower than expected, coupled with rising expenses, weakened overall financial performance momentum. Although the full-year outlook is optimistic, short-term profitability and operating efficiency are still the focus of investors.

Market expectations for an improvement in PayPal's profit structure have not yet been fully realized. If key indicators continue to slow down, stock price pressure may continue into the second half of the year.

Key summary:

• Financial report slightly better than expected but market reaction was negative
  调整后每股盈余为 1.40 美元，优于预期的 1.30 美元；营收达 82.9 亿美元，高于预估的 80.8 亿美元。
  然而，交易利润金额成长放缓至 7%，低于前一季 8% 的水准。

• Poor performance of cash flow and expenses
  第二季自由现金流仅 6.56 亿美元，远低于市场预期，并较第一季大幅下滑。
  营运费用增加至 67.8 亿美元，较前一季的 62.6 亿美元显著攀升。

• Venmo becomes a growth highlight
  Venmo营收年增逾 20%，已连续两季强劲增长，总支付金额年增 12%，创三年来新高。
  包括Starbucks、DoorDash等大型商户已接入Venmo支付。

• Total payment amount was better than expected
  本季TPV达 4,436 亿美元，高于市场预估的 4,336 亿美元；活跃帐户数达 4.38 亿。

• Full-year financial forecast is raised but short-term growth is weak
  公司将全年调整后EPS预期上修至 5.15–5.30 美元，并预估全年自由现金流达 60–70 亿美元。
  第三季预期交易利润成长将进一步放缓至 4%。

 

Boeing cuts losses and increases deliveries, CEO says 2025 is a critical year for transformation

Boeing (BA) announced its second-quarter earnings report, showing that the company's losses narrowed sharply to US$176 million, and revenue increased 35% year-on-year to US$22.75 billion, mainly due to aircraft deliveries hitting a single-quarter high since 2018. Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg emphasized that if safety, quality and stability can continue to improve, this year will be Boeing's "transition year." Despite the strong performance of the commercial aircraft business, the certification of the 737 Max 7 and Max 10 models has been delayed again, coupled with failed labor negotiations and cost issues in the defense department, which still pose challenges to future operations.

Boeing's operations continue to recover, and the double rise in production capacity and delivery shows that it is moving towards normalization, but structural risks and regulatory pressures still require close attention.

Key summary:

• Losses have been significantly reduced
  第二季亏损为 1.76 亿美元，远低于去年同期的 10.9 亿美元；调整后每股亏损为 1.24 美元，优于市场预期的 1.48 美元。
  现金流出 2 亿美元，较去年同期的 43 亿美元大幅改善。

• Aircraft delivery hits record high
  本季交付 150 架飞机，为2018年以来同期新高，带动商用机部门营收年增 81% 至 108.7 亿美元。
  737 Max 月产量维持在 FAA 限制的 38 架，公司将于第三季争取产能提升批准。

• Certification of 737 Max series models delayed
  737 Max 7 与 Max 10 机型预计延至 2026 年才获得认证，晚于原定2025年时程。
  原因包括机上防冰系统需进行修正，工程团队正积极解决中。

• The non-commercial sector performed solidly
  国防与太空事业营收成长 10% 至 66 亿美元，服务部门营收增加 8% 至 53 亿美元。
  然而，劳工合约遭3,200名员工否决，恐引发罢工风险。

• CEO sends optimistic signals
  Ortberg 表示第四季有望产生正现金流，将专注稳定产线与提升品质，实现全面转型。

 

UnitedHealth downgrades its 2025 financial forecast, and medical cost pressure caused its share price to plummet more than 7%

UnitedHealth (UNH), the largest health insurance group in the United States, released its 2025 financial forecast that was significantly lower than market expectations, mainly due to the continued high medical costs of Medicare Advantage, which led to a squeeze in profits. The company expects earnings per share in 2025 to be as low as $16, far below the market estimate of $20.91. The medical loss rate climbed to 89.4% this quarter, indicating that claims pressure has significantly exceeded premium growth. In addition, the Department of Justice's investigation of its medical bills has further impacted investor confidence.

Faced with structural cost pressures and regulatory risks, UnitedHealth is still in the stage of rebuilding operations and trust in the short term, and its share price has dropped by more than 44% throughout the year.

Key summary:

• Financial forecasts are seriously inaccurate
  公司预估2025年调整后每股盈余至少为16美元，营收介于4,455亿至4,480亿美元，远低于市场预期。
  公司表示将于2026年恢复获利成长。

• Medical expenses out of control
  第二季医疗损失率为89.4%，高于去年同期的85.1%，反映医疗成本成长超越保费收入。
  公司坦言在2024年初低估医疗通膨，Medicare Advantage计划未能有效反映成本上升。

• Demand for Medicare rises
  因疫情期间延后手术的高龄患者回流，关节与髋部置换手术增加，推升成本。
  急诊与住院次数增加，门诊与医师费用占医疗压力达70%。

• Second-quarter earnings were mixed
  调整后每股盈余为4.08美元，低于预期的4.48美元；营收为1,116.2亿美元，略优于预期。
  UnitedHealthcare营收年增17%至861亿美元，Optum Rx成长19%，但Optum Health下滑7%。

• High-level turnover and regulatory pressure are intertwined
  新任CEO Stephen Hemsley承认公司面临订价与营运决策错误，将由外部顾问进行流程审查。
  公司正配合司法部调查，并加强内部审查与AI应用以强化风控。

 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

In the United States, job vacancies and hiring fell simultaneously in June, and the slowdown in the service industry highlighted the cooling of the job market

Job vacancies and recruitments in the United States both fell in June, indicating that labor market momentum continues to slow down. According to the JOLTS report, the overall job vacancies have dropped to 7.437 million, far below the peak in 2022, mainly due to the significant contraction in the accommodation and catering industry. When faced with tariff uncertainty and weak consumption, companies have shown a higher cautious attitude and are reluctant to significantly expand their manpower. Although layoffs have not yet increased, the market generally expects that new non-agricultural jobs will be further reduced to 102,000 in July, and the unemployment rate may also rise to 4.2%. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's interest rate meeting, but the Trump administration continues to pressure interest rates, adding variables to subsequent policies.

Amid slowing domestic demand and policy uncertainty, the U.S. job market has shifted from "hot" to "cooling down." Corporate confidence and consumer spending will be the key to observing future economic trends.

Key summary:

• Job vacancies and hiring have declined across the board
  6月职缺减少27.5万个至743.7万，远低于市场预期的750万。
  同期招聘人数下降26.1万至520.4万，显示企业扩编意愿转弱。

• Service industry becomes the hardest hit area
  住宿与餐饮业职缺大减30.8万，招聘人数亦下滑10.6万，显示疫情后的复苏动能已显疲态。
  该产业曾是疫后就业增长主力，如今放缓对总体市场影响显著。

• Layoffs remain low
  6月裁员人数微降7,000人至160.4万，反映雇主因疫情缺工经验，仍不轻易裁员。

• Economic data supports the Fed's inaction
  市场预期联准会本周将维持利率在4.25%–4.5%，连三会议不动作，关键在等待更明确数据指引。

• Trump pressures on Fed to cut interest rates adds uncertainty
  尽管川普公开要求降息，联准会仍坚持「依数据决策」，但政治压力可能影响未来货币政策节奏。

 

Trump's escalating trade war has caused price pressures to rise, U.S. -China tariff negotiations are pending, and Britain has unexpectedly become a potential beneficiary

As U.S. President Trump promotes a new round of trade protectionism policies, global supply chains and price stability are facing huge challenges. Since announcing the "Freedom Day" tariff policy on April 2, the United States has imposed significant tariffs on goods from China, the European Union and many countries, affecting many industries such as automobiles, daily necessities, and food. According to Reuters analysis, in late July alone, companies estimated full-year losses totaling US$7.1 billion to US$8.3 billion. Brands such as P&G and Swatch have begun to increase their U.S. prices to pass on costs to consumers. Although prices have not yet been fully reflected in CPI data, a significant inflationary effect is expected from the fourth quarter as inventory consumption is completed.

On the other hand, the U.S. -China tariff truce agreement is about to expire on August 12. Although there is consensus on the progress of negotiations between the two sides, it still needs Trump's final approval. If it is not extended, the United States will resume the high tariffs that started in April. At the same time, the Anglo-American trade arrangement makes British exports relatively more competitive due to lower tax rates. Experts expect that the UK may become an unexpected beneficiary of this trade war.

Key summary:

• U.S. consumers may face comprehensive price increases
  P&G 宣布自下周起调涨约 1/4 美国商品价格，涨幅为中位数百分比，涵盖清洁用品与日常消耗品。
  Swatch 已调涨售价约 5%，CEO 称对销售「零影响」；Ray-Ban 制造商亦已跟进。

• Companies expect billions of dollars in losses due to tariffs throughout the year
  根据路透全球关税追踪，7月16日至25日间企业预估年度损失介于 71 亿至 83 亿美元。
  包括GM、Ford 等车厂已吸收初期成本，短期内或将转嫁至消费者。

• The extension of the U.S. -China tariff truce is yet to be decided by Trump
  双方第三轮谈判在瑞典结束，尚未达成延长协议。若8月12日未完成延长，美方将恢复对中125%高关税。
  财长 Bessent 表示：「我们称之为 boomeranging（反弹），若无协议，税率将弹回高点」。

• Britain becomes a potential export beneficiary due to lower tax rates
  欧盟输美商品面临15%关税，英国则仅10%，使英货在美更具吸引力。
  分析指出，部分欧商可能转移产线至英国，以避税压。

• Political and economic risks are intertwined, and global trade is unclear
  川普释出8月1日起将实施全球性报复关税，已致市场紧张。
  商务部长 Lutnick 表示，除了中国以外，其他国家「周五前一定完成谈判」，未来仍会视谈判进度进行弹性处理。

 

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, as markets focus on internal differences and political pressure

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% at this week's meeting, continuing its policy stance since its June meeting. However, there are many political and internal developments hidden behind the meeting, including some members 'support for interest rate cuts, Trump's pressure and fiscal disputes, which may affect policy prospects. Even if there is currently no consensus on interest rate cuts, the market generally expects that the cut may begin as soon as September. Since there is no "dot map" or economic forecast update this time, investors will closely interpret Chairman Bauer's remarks at the press conference to grasp the direction of future policies.

Although inflation is close to the target, internal differences of opinion, political interference and changes in the job market have made the Fed's short-term policies even more uncertain.

Key summary:

• Interest rate cuts are unlikely at this meeting
  联准会预期将按兵不动，重申需依赖经济数据作判断。
  多数委员尚未支持在7月降息，且主席鲍尔仅是一票，无主导权。

• Some officials advocate immediate interest rate cuts
  委员Waller与Bowman表态支持降息，并可能投反对票，若成真将是自1993年以来首次多位官员异议。
  Waller表示劳动市场边缘化，且通膨风险有限，不应等待经济转弱才行动。

• Increased political and external pressures
  总统川普要求鲍尔辞职，并指联准会应透过降息提振房市与减轻债务利息。
  白宫批评联准会建筑案预算超支，已成近期争议焦点之一。

• Inflation and tariff effects remain variable
  川普新一轮关税未如预期推升通膨，使持续观望政策难以为继。
  官员关注后续数据是否支持9月启动降息。

• The market still expects to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in September
  虽然本次会议无点阵图更新，但6月预测显示年内预计降息两次。
  决策仍将高度依赖未来数据与政治环境发展。