[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Futures diverge after Dow Jones hit a high, with the focus on Netflix's reshuffle with traditional media (2025.10.22)

The mood is neutral, and the divergence in U.S. stock futures reflects the intertwined impact of financial reports and industry news. After Dow Jones hit a record high the previous trading day, the S & P and Nasdaq were tied, and pre-market sentiment turned to wait-and-see. The market focus is on Netflix's (NFLX) earnings dragged down by tax disputes and the restructuring of traditional media assets. At the same time, we are paying attention to the impact of high gold price fluctuations and the trend of the US dollar on risk appetite and capital rotation.

Global stock markets are moderate and stable, with different pulses in Asia and Europe. In early trading on Wednesday in Taiwan time, major Asian stock markets were divided, with South Korea's Kospi leading the gains, reflecting a rebound in semiconductor and AI supply chain buying; European stocks closed slightly higher the night before, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 rising about 0.21%. However, medical equity stocks were mixed, and Novo Nordisk(Novo Nordisk, NVO) was under pressure due to corporate governance noise. The tone of the international stock market is still stable, but its impact on the opening of U.S. stocks is neutral.

Index futures wait and see, with funds racing between weights and revolving stocks. Dow Jones futures were biased towards consolidation after reaching a high the day before yesterday. The trends of the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were divergent, indicating that the short-term balance between growth stocks and value stocks is difficult to break. Investors evaluated the fundamental signals in the earnings season and policy uncertainty before the end of the year and chose to reduce unilateral bets.

Streaming leaders were under pressure, and Netflix fell after hours but its industrial advantages remained unchanged. Netflix's third-quarter revenue was in line with expectations, and its profit was lower than market estimates due to the one-time impact of the Brazilian tax dispute. Taiwan's share price fell by about 6% after hours on Wednesday morning. The company mentioned that it "fully invests in AI" to improve the efficiency of content production and advertising. The advertising distribution business achieved a high performance in a single quarter, and the number of views increased by popular content, indicating that the business model is still resilient, but tax and regional market variables suppressed stock price reaction in the short term.

Traditional media assets have been reshuffled, and consolidation and spin-off have become the main axis of self-help. Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD) said it was open to potential sale options and continued to push for the process of splitting into the two companies; foreign companies pointed out that Netflix and Comcast(Comcast (CMCSA) were named as possible stakeholders. On the other hand, Comcast's NBCUniversal plans to spin off its cable TV channel assets. These actions highlight the fact that old media seeks efficiency and capital structure optimization under streaming economics, and that risks and opportunities coexist in industrial chain valuation and re-pricing.

U.S. stocks diverged on the eve of the night, with blue-chip high-tech innovation going hand in hand with technological consolidation. On the trading day before the close of trading on Wednesday morning in Taiwan time, the Dow Jones index hit a record high, the S & P 500 closed almost flat, and the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.16%. This reflects that profit-taking occurs simultaneously with sector rotation. Equity finance and industry have strong support for the index. Growth technology stocks tend to be conservative before financial results change.

The theme of corporate repurchase has attracted attention, and its long-term performance is better than the weighted combination such as the market. Goldman Sachs(GS) research pointed out that the so-called "buyback aristocrats" combination, which has continued to reduce the number of outstanding shares for a long time, has outperformed the performance of weights such as the S & P 500 since 2012. Repo discipline is often more favored by the market during periods of interest rate trends and free cash flow improvement, and has also become one of the focuses of current pre-market fund allocation discussions.

Commodities and foreign exchange markets affect risk appetite, gold prices fluctuate at high levels but remain strong during the year. Precious metals have strengthened this year due to uncertainty in global trade, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a fall in the dollar. In recent days, they have retreated, but the overall bull structure remains unchanged. The resilience of gold reflects the increase in risk-averse thinking in asset allocation, and the marginal pressure on growth asset valuation is relatively limited. However, if the US dollar rebounds and US bond yields rise, short-term volatility may intensify.

The raw material policy signal has attracted attention, and rare earth supply has become an external variable in the industrial chain. China's diplomatic system pointed out that countries should take the initiative to stabilize the supply of rare earths, echoing the global allocation of key mineral cooperation structures between the United States and Australia. For demand for electric vehicles, wind power and high-end chip materials, policy orientation may affect mid-to-upstream prices and inventory cycles, and pre-market stocks related to metals and new energy tend to be cautious.

Fundamental data in Asia is mixed, with Japan's exports recovering but shipments to the United States weakening. Japan's exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year in September, ending a four-month decline, but were lower than market estimates; the 9.2% year-on-year increase in exports to Asia showed a recovery in regional demand, and the 13.3% year-on-year decline in exports to the United States highlighted the continued adjustment of terminal demand and inventories in the United States. The impact of this combination of signals on Taiwan's electronics supply chain and shipping quotes is neutral and conservative, and investors continue to pay attention to the momentum of stocking in the fourth quarter.

The industrial structure has been rewritten, and AI and advertising technology have become a new battleground for competition. Netflix emphasizes the introduction of AI to improve content efficiency and advertising monetization. The third quarter's high advertising revenue shows that the subscription and advertising hybrid model is gradually maturing. In contrast, traditional media choose to spin off or transfer assets in order to reduce losses and focus on core cash flow. In the future, content procurement and sports broadcasting rights prices may be rebalanced.

Pre-market stocks paid attention, and the media and content supply chain volatility increased. Driven by the news of mergers and acquisitions and spin-offs, Warner Bros. Exploration and Comcast's related asset evaluations are facing a reassessment, and the trend after Netflix's earnings report has also affected the streaming ecosystem. The market has also paid attention to the follow-up reactions of advertising technology service providers and cloud infrastructure providers, showing that funds track business model resilience and cash flow visibility from top to bottom.

In the policy and data agenda, interest rate path and employment price signals remain the main lines. Although there were not many heavyweight data that day, the market was still highly sensitive to the forward-looking guidance released on inflation, employment and the housing market. The language released in Fed officials 'conversations and meeting minutes would also affect interest rate expectations. When third-quarter earnings and macro paths meet, funds tend to use futures and options to hedge event risks.

Risk factors are listed, and geography and industrial policies are potential sources of fluctuations. Global trade frictions, key resource supply policies and political events in individual regions may all trigger short-term hedging. For U.S. stocks, these external variables are often quickly reflected through the channels of US dollar, gold and U.S. bond yields. The pre-market impact on weight and high leverage themes needs to be noted.

In terms of funding and rotation pattern, blue-chip earthquake resistance and growth stock evaluation are corrected in parallel. Dow Jones Innovation highlights the capital's preference for solid profits and dividend repurchase targets. Technology growth stocks are struggling in the short term under the dual review of financial reports and valuations. The overall atmosphere before the market was still dominated by range consolidation, waiting for more corporate financial forecasts and macro data to provide direction.

Overall, pre-market sentiment is stable and wait-and-see. The key lies in the continuity of corporate fundamentals and policy changes. At the index level, authorized values are rotating, while at the industry level, streaming and media restructuring are the most eye-catching; commodity and foreign exchange market fluctuations constitute short-term risk appetite thermometers. Investors continue to pay attention to Netflix's follow-up guidance, the progress of traditional media asset restructuring and FAX-related signals as the main observation lists before today's opening.