FundamentalOverview

The USD remained supported since last Thursday’s US NFP report as the data came out betterthan expected and triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations.Unfortunately for the greenback, that wasn’t enough as wage growth came out onthe softer side which limited further repricing and more sustained gains.

On the JPY side, we gotsome disappointing wage growth figures yesterday and the US-Japan negotiationsdon’t look to be going well. As a reminder, the BoJ continues to place a greatdeal on the US-Japan trade deal before looking at adjusting rates. So, negativenews on the trade front erodes the hopes for another rate hike by year-end.

USDJPYTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY reached the top of the range around the 146.28 level. Thebuyers will likely continue to keep pushing into the 148.28 resistancewhere we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above theresistance to position for another drop back into the 142.35 support.

USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the range between the 142.35 support and the 146.28 resistance.The sellers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk abovethe resistance to position for a drop back into the 144.35 zone. The buyers, onthe other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets intothe 148.28 level next.

USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum onthis timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline tokeep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will want to see the pricebreaking below the trendline and the 144.35 zone to gain more conviction forfurther downside. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

This week, the only notable events are the US tariff lettersand trade deals expected to be fully rolled out by tomorrow, and the US JoblessClaims figures on Thursday.

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