The USDCHF moved higher following a better-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims report, indicating continued strength in the labor market. However, the rise in continuing claims to their highest level since 2021 suggests that those who lose jobs are finding it harder to get rehired — a sign of underlying friction in employment conditions.

While the data doesn’t signal a significant deterioration in the jobs picture, it also doesn’t support the urgency for a Fed rate cut in July, despite ongoing market debate. Key inflation readings — CPI and PPI, due next week on July 15 and 16, respectively — will be critical in shaping expectations.

U.S. stocks have reacted modestly negative to the report. The NASDAQ is down ~10 points, the Dow -78 points, and the S&P -5.76 points.

US yields are modestly higher with the 10-year up one basis point at 4.350%. The 2-year yield is up 0.6 basis points to 3.868%.

On the technical front, USDCHF broke back above both its 100-hour moving average (blue line) at 0.7956 and the 200-hour MA (green line) at 0.7943 earlier today — levels it fell below yesterday. This recovery gives buyers renewed control and confidence.

Resistance targets include:

• Yesterday’s high at 0.7979

• This week’s high at 0.7994

• 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June high at 0.8002, which aligns with psychological resistance at the 0.8000 level

A break above this retracement would strengthen the bullish outlook and signal greater intent by buyers to reclaim dominance. Conversely, a move back below the 100 hour moving average and 200 hour moving average would weaken the technical picture.