The USDCHF found solid footing during the Asian and European morning sessions, bouncing twice off its 200-hour moving average at 0.7952 (see green line on the chart above). That level, along with a break back above the 100-hour MA at 0.7945 last week, has helped tilt the short-term bias in favor of the buyers - with work to do.

The next key hurdle comes at the 0.7986 high from last Thursday, which briefly broke yesterday before quickly reversing. A more convincing break above that level would shift focus toward the 38.2% retracement of the June decline at 0.8002 — a critical target that could set the tone for further upside. If the buyers are to take more control, they need to get and stay above the 38.2% retracement target.

As long as the pair remains above the moving averages, buyers retain control. A fall back below 0.7945–0.7952 would weaken that narrative and open the door for a deeper retracement toward 0.7920–0.7930. For now, the technicals favor strength, but a break of 38.2% is ultimately needed to build further upside momentum.