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Arthur Hayes: If the U.S. Treasury TGA account reaches US$850 billion, the crypto market will enter a "only rise but not fall" mode

On September 21, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that once the U.S. Treasury achieves its goal of injecting US$850 billion into the TGA(Treasury General Account), the crypto market will enter a "only up but not down" mode. Hayes wrote as the opening balance of the U.S. TGA exceeded $807 billion: "As liquidity exhaustion ends, the trend of 'only up but not down' will reappear." When the Treasury fills its general account, funds are usually quarantined and do not flow into private markets. However, not all analysts believe Hayes 'prediction that once the U.S. Treasury reaches its goals, liquidity will flow to financial markets. André Dragosch, head of European research at investment firm Bitwise, responded: "However, the correlation between net liquidity and Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is loose at best. In my opinion, this is simply useless."

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