[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Pre-market keywords of the day (2025.10.27)

Cooling inflation drives interest rate cuts to heat up bets, and this week's focus returns to technology earnings reports and the Federal Reserve Committee

The CPI of the United States in September was lower than expected, and the market's bets on interest rates warmed up. Combined with last week's two-week red close and the high pre-market index futures, the opening sentiment tended to be positive. However, Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canada, the government shutdown has led to key economic data gaps, and uncertainty about high-level interactions between the United States and China have set a high level of risk sentiment. Investors 'eyes are focused on this week's Fed interest rate meeting and the financial results of the five largest technology stocks. Forward-looking statements from the technology and cloud industries are expected to affect the market structure.

The futures index rose in line with the strengthening of Asian stocks, and risk appetite continued before the opening.

Driven by soft inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts, U.S. stock futures rose in the United States on Sunday evening. Asian stocks generally rose early this morning in Taiwan time. Japan's Nikkei 225 index stood above 50,000 points for the first time. European stocks also turned from black to red last Friday. In terms of U.S. stocks, the major indexes rose about 2% last Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index closed above 47,000 points for the first time on Friday. Technical and funding resonated to support pre-market risk appetite.

Inflation is lower than expected but its annual growth is back to 3%, and the downward curve of inflation still needs more evidence

In September, the CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations of 0.4% and 3.1%, but the annual growth rate increased slightly from the 2.9% in August. The market interprets it as "no longer rushing" rather than "rapid downward", reducing doubts that inflation will rise unexpectedly again. In response to data performance and the easing of the financial environment, the probability of interest rate futures pricing cutting in October and December has increased significantly. It should be noted that due to the shutdown of the U.S. government, some key indicators such as the employment report have not been updated, and there is still an information gap in the overall economic picture.

The Fed is about to debut, and the wording of the statement and economic assessment affect yields and the US dollar

The market is concerned about the Federal Reserve's interpretation of cooling inflation, its assessment of growth momentum, and its communication on future interest rate cuts. If the policy statement expresses higher confidence in falling prices, short-term interest rate expectations may be further loosened; conversely, if upward risks such as tariffs and energy are emphasized, the interest rate curve may be re-priced. The trend of the US dollar and changes in U.S. bond yields will affect the relative performance of technology, high-dividend and revolving stocks.

Tariff uncertainty rises, Sichuan-Xi Interaction and ASEAN Negotiations are subject to market amplification

Trump added a new 10% tariff on Canada, increasing the overall tariff burden on Canada to about 45%, creating a policy constraint at a time when sentiment is warming. The high-level communication between the United States and China during the ASEAN Summit was described as providing a "successful negotiation framework" for Trump and Xi Jinping. The two are expected to meet on an APEC occasion. Whether the U.S. -China relations will temporarily relax or not is related to the risk premium of supply chain and the pace of capital expenditures by multinational companies. If the relaxation period expires on November 10 without extension, the market may reassess the tariff impact.

China's industrial profits rebound strongly, Asian risk assets gain marginal support

China's profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year-on-year in September, hitting a new high since November 2023, continuing the 20.4% growth rate in August. Officials have guided the cooling down of price wars and the closing of inventory adjustments, which has led to an improvement in manufacturing profits and provided spillover support for Asian stocks and cyclical assets. Regional risk appetite has increased, echoing the positive signs of the U.S. stock futures index this morning.

The earnings season continues to exceed expectations, and the joint appearance of five major technological powers has affected index fluctuations.

According to LSEG statistics, about 87% of companies have so far outperformed expectations, significantly higher than the long-term average of 67%. This week, the market focuses on the heavyweight companies among the five "seven giants", including Apple(Apple, AAPL), Microsoft(MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) and Meta Platforms(META). The financial report focuses on cloud growth resilience, AI-related capital expenditures and revenue realization, digital advertising and e-commerce demand curves, and cost efficiency and cash back policies. In contrast, Tesla(TSLA) and Nvidia(NVDA) are not on this week's list, making the cloud and advertising narrative the mainstay.

Financial cases and institutional views serve as auxiliary signals, and international risk appetite is observed simultaneously

HSBC Holdings said it would prepare US$1.1 billion for the Madoff fraud case and reported in its third-quarter earnings report that the results were released on Tuesday, Taiwan time, and investors observed its potential impact on capital ratios and dividend policies. UBS pointed out that when U.S. stocks are strong, the inclusion of Asian stocks, bonds and gold in the portfolio can help spread risk. Although it is an institutional perspective, it still reflects the allocation of funds under the heating of geographical and policy variables.

U.S. stock futures index and volume observation, and the opening structure pay attention to technology and circular rotation

In the early period of the session, the trend and volume will determine the strength of the opening, and expected transactions before the Weiwen Technology earnings report may increase volatility. If the US dollar falls and the US bond yield falls, the valuation support of growth stocks will benefit relatively; conversely, if policy signals are biased or tariff risks heat up, the relative strength of energy, industrial and defense stocks may continue. As the government shutdown has created a data window, the market has become more sensitive to single data and corporate guidance. The changes in the internal breadth of the S & P and the index are worth noting.

Last week's performance laid a technical foundation, but the gap between policies and data determines continuity

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq have risen for two consecutive weeks, with improved technical aspects providing short-term and offline support. However, although inflation is lower than expected, the annual growth is still above 3%. The variables of tariffs and energy prices have not been eliminated, and there is a lack of heavyweight data such as employment to verify economic resilience. The continuity of the market still depends on this week's Fed meeting news and the visibility of large-scale technology earnings for the coming quarter. The overall tone before the market is positive, but the catalytic effect of long and short positions is concentrated, and fluctuations may be amplified after the opening.