The USDCHF is the best performer vs the USD of the major currencies. The USD is now marginally lower vs the CHF as flight to safety flows favor the more neutral CHF. The pair is down -0.05% after trading higher earlier today..

Geopolitical nerves from the Iran-Israel flare-up initially pushed safe-haven CHF lower, sending USDCHF up toward the 0.8191-0.8212 swing zone. Dip sellers showed up right at the base of that band and the rally fizzled before the 38.2 % retracement level (0.8216) could be tested (or even sniffed).

Prices then slipped through the 100-hour moving average (now 0.81717) but bearish momentum stalled at the 200-hour MA (0.81540). That green line has caught every downside probe since the European open, underscoring its importance as near-term support. The bounce reclaimed the 100-hour line, yet each recovery continues to cap at the lower edge of the highlighted swing area, highlighting a market caught between short-term trend followers and medium-term range players.

With event risk still high and U.S. data thin, intraday flows are likely to trade the boundaries. However, the dovish comments from Bowman (echoes comments from Waller last week), show that the Fed decision last week had some dissenters despite the unanimous vote and even the dot plot that had 7 members thinking no rate changes was their bias between now and the end of the year.

A decisive hourly close beyond either side should dictate the next impulse.

Key technical levels

• Resistance 1: 0.8191 (swing-area base, cap so far)

• Resistance 2: 0.8212 (swing-area top)

• Resistance 3: 0.8216 (38.2 % of May-Jun decline)

• Support 1: 0.81717 (100-hour MA)

• Support 2: 0.81540 (200-hour MA)

• Support 3: 0.81468 (lower swing shelf if MAs give way. A move below is an invitation to a potential move toward the low)