Donald Trump’s sweeping $3.3 trillion tax and spending package cleared a critical hurdle this week, squeaking through the Senate with a 51-50 vote that hinged on Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaker. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index surged to a session high on the news, snapping a six-month slide through June and signaling market optimism—or at least relief—that Trump’s fiscal agenda is gaining traction. But as the bill, dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill," heads to the House, its fate hangs in the balance, with Republican infighting and a tight vote count threatening to derail the president’s July 4 deadline.

Senate Squeaker Signals GOP Fractures

The Senate vote was a nail-biter, exposing deep fissures within the GOP. Three Republicans—Susan Collins of Maine, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Rand Paul of Kentucky—bucked Trump’s intense lobbying to oppose the bill. Collins, a moderate, voiced alarm over the Medicaid reductions, warning they could devastate rural healthcare and leave millions uninsured. Tillis shared similar concerns, pointing to the bill’s potential to strain state budgets already stretched thin. Paul, a fiscal hawk, slammed the $5 trillion debt ceiling hike as “a reckless blank check for future generations.” Their defiance forced last-minute negotiations, with Trump personally calling wavering senators over the weekend, a move insiders say clinched Vance’s decisive vote.

The package melds $4.5 trillion in tax cuts with $1.2 trillion in reductions, largely targeting safety-net programs like Medicaid and food stamps. Trump hailed it as a “great bill” with “something for everyone,” predicting smoother sailing in the House. Yet public opinion is skeptical: a Pew Research survey shows 49% of Americans oppose it, with just 29% in favor. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer seized on this divide, warning, “This vote will haunt Republicans. People will get sick and die, kids will go hungry, and the debt will explode to levels we’ve never seen.”

Markets Perk Up, but Doubts Linger

Markets reacted swiftly to the Senate win. The dollar’s climb reflects bets on tax-driven growth, with analysts pointing to potential boosts in consumer spending and corporate investment. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell threw cold water on the optimism, warning Tuesday that the U.S. fiscal path remains “unsustainable.” The bill’s $5 trillion debt ceiling hike—tucked in to dodge an August default—drew his ire. “The level of the debt is manageable, but the trajectory is not,” Powell said, urging lawmakers to address the deficit. The tax cuts extend Trump’s 2017 framework, adding new breaks for tips, overtime, car loans, seniors, and parents—popular campaign promises now funded by slashing renewable energy credits and other green incentives.

The renewable cuts have ignited controversy. Fossil fuel stocks stand to gain, but the move stunned clean energy advocates and even some Trump allies. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, once a vocal supporter, took to social media to blast the axed EV tax credit as “short-sighted and destructive,” warning it could cede U.S. leadership in a booming sector. Analysts estimate the cuts could shrink renewable investment by 20% over five years, potentially costing 300,000 jobs in solar and wind alone.

Big Spending, Bigger Cuts

The bill’s spending side is equally ambitious—and polarizing. Military and immigration enforcement get a massive boost—$600 billion combined—to flex Trump’s hard-power muscle. Meanwhile, Medicaid faces nearly $1 trillion in cuts through work requirements, co-pays, and capped state reimbursements. The Congressional Budget Office projects 11.8 million could lose coverage over a decade, a statistic Democrats are wielding as a cudgel. Food stamps and student loans face similar trims, with expanded work rules and tightened eligibility. Republicans frame it as a leaner government; Democrats call it a cruel rollback of the social safety net.

The Medicaid cuts have hit a nerve, especially in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, where rural hospitals are already on life support. Senator Sherrod Brown warned of “a death sentence for working families,” citing risks to addiction treatment and maternal care. GOP leaders counter that the reforms target waste, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune insisting, “We’re not cutting care; we’re cutting inefficiency.”

House Hurdles Loom Large

Now, the spotlight shifts to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson is racing to lock in votes before Trump’s self-imposed Independence Day finish line. With a 220-212 GOP edge, he can lose just three Republicans if Democrats hold firm—and they will. The Senate bill tweaks the House’s May version, which passed by a single vote, but the changes have sparked a revolt. Ultra-conservatives like Andy Ogles and Ralph Norman decry the deficit bloat, with Ogles pushing to revert to the House’s leaner cut. Moderates, meanwhile, are digging in against Medicaid slashes, especially a phased cut to provider taxes that could kneecap rural hospitals. A $50 billion rural hospital fund, added late in Senate talks, aims to soothe nerves, but skeptics like David Valadao, from a swing district, remain unmoved.

SALT Sticking Point

The state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap—raised to $40,000 for five years before snapping back to $10,000—hasn’t quelled dissent either. New York’s Nick LaLota, representing a high-tax district, called it a half-measure and vowed to vote no. Trump took to social media, urging House Republicans to “stay UNITED” and ignore “GRANDSTANDERS,” but the clock is ticking. Majority Whip Steve Scalise exudes confidence—“We’re going to get it done tomorrow,” he said Tuesday—but the math suggests a cliffhanger.

What’s Next?

If the House balks and amends the bill, it’s back to the Senate for reconciliation, a delay that could unravel Trump’s timeline. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a reluctant yes in the Senate, signaled openness to tweaks, urging the House to refine the package. Success would hand Trump a signature win, cementing his economic vision ahead of the midterms. Failure risks exposing GOP disarray, emboldening critics, and stalling momentum.

Wall Street’s watching closely. The dollar’s bounce hints at short-term bullishness, but the bill’s long-term juice is debated—many economists see little GDP lift and a ballooning deficit. For now, the House vote looms as the next market mover, with every defection a potential jolt. Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" has cleared one chamber, but its final act is anyone’s guess.