The USDCAD remains capped by key technical barriers, with Monday and Tuesday's rally stalling near the 200-day moving average at 1.40114 and the critical swing zone between 1.40097 and 1.40268. This area has proven to be a firm ceiling for now, with sellers defending their ground. The price of the USDCAD fell yesterday and again today.

Despite this resistance near the 200 day MA, the buyers have not given up. A bounce today - after the 2 day decline - started from the swing support area between 1.38917 and 1.3904. That suggests underlying demand remains intact. The buyers are still in play - at lease in the short term. This zone was a ceiling until broken last week and basing. That old ceiling/now floor is helping to define the current consolidation range.

For buyers to reassert control, they will need to push decisively through nearby resistance at 1.3967 (200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart) to 1.3977 (high from April 15) . A break above that zone would open the path toward the more formidable confluence of the 200-day MA and the high of a swing area at 1.40268.

Key technical levels:

• Support: 1.38917–1.3904 (swing area)

• Immediate resistance: 1.3967–1.3977

• Major resistance: 1.40097–1.40268 (swing zone) and 200-day MA at 1.40114

• Bias: Cautiously bullish above 1.3904; more bullish confirmation on break of 1.40268

Momentum above 1.3977 could reignite upside pressure, but failure to clear resistance risks renewed downside probing.